COVID news of late has been more positive with hospitalization rates going down and the vaccine being administered. I have hopes of a recovery in late 2021  and into 2022.  The Atlantic has a great story about the importance of fresh air in treating airborne illnesses and how in the early part of COVID we forgot or discounted some of the measures learned during the 1918 pandemic.  See "We're Just Rediscovering a 19th Century Pandemic Strategy".

If you've ever worked in a modern office building you will appreciate the story. They are often stuffy with little air circulation and the windows don't open. I hate them. Add to that nobody can agree on the proper temperature. Often the ventilation systems are inadequate or under powered to save money.

The Market is still doing well from a stage analysis at this time. Gold appears to be entering in to stage 4.  My bets are on energy, travel stocks, and other areas that will benefit from some sort of 'back to normalcy'.

 

2020 End of Year Review

 Here is a quick breakdown of how 2020 fared for stocks.

• Dow 9.7%
• S&P 17.63%
• NASDAQ 45%
• GLD 23%
  
• TIP 10%
  
• SDS (Ultra short S&P) -48%

Not a good year for the DOW in comparison to the other indexes. Great year otherwise.

Stock Market Update - Week Ending 12/11/20

 There has been some changes in the market as we get news that the FDA approved emergency use of the COVID-19 vaccine. "While not an FDA approval, today’s emergency use authorization of the Pfizer-BioNTech COVID-19 Vaccine holds the promise to alter the course of this pandemic in the United States,” said Peter Marks, M.D., Ph.D., Director of the FDA’s Center for Biologics Evaluation and Research.

With anticipation that the other vaccines will also get approved, and preparation for distribution of the Pfizer-BioNTech vaccine, there is some hope on the horizon. 

Now may be the time to trim gold if you have it. With the good news on COVID and the Gold ETF moving below it's 30 week moving average line, gold may be moving into Stage3. The moving average line itself is starting to flatten out. We will see.

 

 

 

Stock Market Update: Week of November 27, 2020

 It defies logic considering how bad the economy is, but the market is spiking up. CNN's Fear and Greed indicator is the highest I've seen. Extreme greed.

All of the indicators are currently green. COVID vaccine news continues as more options came out this week. Five are in Phase 3 trials.

As of November 24, 2020, large-scale (Phase 3) clinical trials are in progress or being planned for five COVID-19 vaccines in the United States:

• AstraZeneca’s COVID-19 vaccine
• Janssen’s COVID-19 vaccine
• Moderna’s COVID-19 vaccine
• Novavax’s COVID-19 vaccine
• Pfizer’s COVID-19 vaccine​

The market seems a little frosty to me. Gold broke below it's 30 week moving average. Tread lightly.

 

Stock Market Update: September 25, 2020

There is a lot of uncertainty in the air. We have the upcoming election, talks of fast tracking a COVID-19 vaccine, and in general malaise and people are sick and tired of the lock down. 

The major indexes are above their 30 week moving averages however they are not looking to be in good shape as evidenced by the S&P chart below.

 

 

Gold appears to be consolidating. Its moving average line is still sloping up however which is a positive indicator.

I am in a wait and see mode at the moment and expect some turbulence with the election.

Stock Market Update: September 11, 2020

This week saw a little pull back however from a long view of weekly and monthly charts, the major indexes are still above their 30 week moving averages. Gold continues to be above it's moving average as well, but could be entering into Stage 3. 

The DOW shuffled the companies. Out are ExxonMobile, Raytheon and Pfiezer. In are Salesforce, Amgen and Honeywell. Also impacting the DOW is the Apple 4 for 1 stock split.

Holding steady for now.

 

Stock Market Update: End of August 2020

 The market continues to move up. CNN's Fear and Greed indicator is reading greed.

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

I find this chart I came up with to be interesting. The Gold ETF, GLD, compared to the DOW price action. If you notice, gold went up prior to the big market decline in 2009.  I circled the cross overs however you can see the price action diverged between the two when there was a change in the market. At the moment both are on an uptrend. In my opinion, if a COVID-19 vaccine comes out, then gold will probably drop, at least temporarily. It could continue to hold steady though as governments around the world print money and the dollar keeps losing value.

Let's look at the Stan Weinstein indicators for the market as a whole.

Are the Indexes above their 30 week moving average?

1. DJIA - Yes but the MA slope is down
2. S&P - Yes with a flat MA
3. NASDAQ - Yes with an upward MA
4. GDOW - Yes but the MA slope is down

5. DJIA vs NYSE A-D Positive? Yes, the DOW is down while the NYSE is up.

6. DJIA vs NYSE 52 Wk High/Low? No, both are down

7. 200 Day MA NYSE A-D? Yes
8. NYSE 52 Week Highs vs Lows Differential? Yes

9. DOW price to dividend ratio? No, and personally I don't think this indicator works in our current market since the Fed stepped in after the 2009 market crash.

Essentially we have 6/8 positive, however 3 of the indexes are a very weak positive. The price might be above the moving average line, but the moving average is not on an uptrend for the DOW, S&P and Global DOW.

I am going to throw gold in as an contrarian indicator. It continues to be on a tear and that generally does not bode well for the overall market.

Stock Market Update as of July 24, 2020 - COVID Continues, Gold Rises, Dollar Falls

I keep thinking gold has hit a top, it must be, but then as things continue on, it appears it may still be in stage 2. The dollar is falling, COVID flareups and the ramifications for people and businesses continues, however, the overall market indexes are all still above their 30 week moving averages. What is a cat to think?

I bought some of the Gold ETF in 2017 as a hedge. Didn't think too much of it and let it sit there as a rainy day investment. The question for me now is do I buy more or wait it out? In reviewing the chart, it looks like there is room for more advancement before GLD enters into stage 3. A stop loss is in order at $160. Note the resistance to move past is the $179 high in 2011. This week can be key to see if it can plow through that resistance line.

A ChartMill chart below, confirms gold is in stage 3. (ChartMill has Weinstein indicators).

 

And then Greg Schnell posted an article comparing copper and gold to the dollar.

Stock Market Update: July 17, 2020 - Let's Look at Gold

Stocks are doing well from a Stage Analysis view, with the DOW joining the other major indexes when it finally move above its 30 week moving average. Let's see if it sticks.

Gold has been getting a lot of attention lately as it reaches highs lately and the US government printing money like crazy. See this interesting Barron's Article.

I thought it would be interesting to compare gold to the DOW and S&P. If the recent crossover is any indication and works like it did in the 2009 downturn, gold may continue to move upwards. The orange line in each chart represents GLD (ETF).

How about technology? It also is on an upward trend. Martin Pring has a great blog post on it. The next coming week's will help us see if the trend will continue or reverse.