Stock Market Update: November 21, 2021

Markets have taken a bit of a bounce as we continue in Stage 3. The moving average line is sloping up.

It will be nice if things can get back to boring wouldn't it? This week we are seeing countries impose lock downs as COVID cases go up in Europe.

Stockcharts' Joe Duarte has an article on Fed rates and Covid and where are we in the market?

Stock Market Update: July 11, 2020

The market continues to prove itself fairly resilient. Some say it is related to the fed policy. Technology has benefited from the work from home and stay at home mandates in reaction to the COVID pandemic. 

If the SDS ETF which is a hyper short vehicle is any indication, the markets are okay for now.  In the 2009 crisis, shorts were an indicator of how the market was doing. 

Here is a snapshot of how many COVID cases the US has as of this week.

and a comparison to the flu season:

We are living in interesting times indeed.

Stock Market Update: June 28, 2020

Market indicators are mixed. The recent upturn appears to be on shaky ground with Nassim Taleb calling for hedging a long tail. 

With that in mind, let's see where gold is from a stage perspective using the GLD ETF via stockcharts.

The moving average is sloping up, the close is above the 30 week moving average and fundamentals for gold are improving if you consider that it is widely viewed as a hedge for the market. The chart below shows the peak of gold during the 2009 market downturn was around $180. Current prices is $162. If we consider 180 to be the ceiling then we may have room for higher prices.

How about looking at the tech sector? The NasDaq continues to be in a stage 2 accumulation phase.

Overall, the market is choppy however, and that indicates we are still in phase 4 overall. The DOW and S&P are not in stage 2 but are still in stage 4.
 

Stock Market Update: Week Ending June 5, 2020

Big rebound in markets this week with an upbeat jobs report.

From a stage analysis perspective, we have the following:

• DOW & S&P : Stage 4. The 30 week moving average is still sloping down or is flat.
• NASDAQ: Stage 1: Closing price above the 30 week moving average and the moving average is sloping upward

 The CNN Fear and Greed index is showing a little bit of improvement the first time a long time.

Many areas in the US are re-opening in phases and fingers crossed, we can re-open without a resurgence in cases. We all need to get out of the house!!  
 

Stock Market Update: End of May 2020

Well we're at the end of May and it's been a ride! Markets rebounded and there is hope, at least here in New York, that we can start to re-open. NY has a 4 phase approach. Note, all have extensive rules, see the official page for more information.

• Phase 1: 
• Construction 
• Agriculture, Forestry, Fishing and Hunting 
• Retail - (Limited to curbside or in-store pickup or drop off)
• Manufacturing 
• Wholesale Trade 
• Phase 2:
• Offices 
• Real Estate
• Essential and Phase 2 in-store retail
• Vehicle sales, lease, rentals
• Retail rental, repair and cleaning
• Commercial building management
• Hair salons and barbershops (Yay)
• NOT OPEN:
  
  • Malls
  • Dine-in and on-premise restaurant or bar service, excluding take-out or delivery for off-premise consumption;
  • Large gathering/event venues
  • Gyms, fitness centers, and exercise classes,
  • Video lottery and casino gaming facilities;
  • Movie theaters, except drive-ins; and
  • Places of public amusement
• Phase 3:
• The guidelines below apply to non-essential businesses in regions that are permitted to reopen, essential businesses throughout the state that were previously permitted to remain open, and commercial and recreational activities that have been permitted to operate statewide with restrictions
• NOT OPEN: Restaurants and dine-in
• Phase 4:
  •  NOT OPEN:
    
    • Arts / Entertainment / Recreation
    • Education
     
  Holy Cow! Can it get any more confusing??

The stock market on the other hand is more direct. Markets appear to be making a recovery with the major indexes either above their 30 week moving average or about to break through and above it.