2023 Stock Market Performance Wrap Up

2023 was a great year for the stock market. We finally saw some improvements after the long sideways performance of 2022. 

• S&P - up 26%
• Dow - up 13%
• NASDAG - up 53%
  

We appear to be in Stage 2 going into 2024 which is a positive sign. A review of Stage 2. This is a time to invest.

• Stage 2 - Advancing Phase
• 30 week moving average slopes up. 
• Close is above the 30 week Moving Average, with higher lows
• Fundamentals improve

Slickcharts has some fantastic charts. Here is one showing returns year over year for the S&P.

Stock Market Update - Mid-Year 2023

We've just finished the first half of 2023 and I thought it might be a good time to take a look at how the market is doing. From a stage analysis perspective, we are in Stage 2 for the S&P and NASDAQ, the Dow however is in Stage 1.

We haven't looked at the CNN Fear and Greed indicator in awhile. We are currently in Extreme Greed.

Stock Market Update - May 28, 2023

 As we await a debt ceiling compromise between democrats and republicans the market is up and down and up and down again. As I write this post, it appears a preliminary deal has been struck and is ready for a vote this coming week.

From a technical standpoint, it appears we are in Phase 2 Advancing for the NASDAQ and SPY. The DOW retreated this past week. All positive signs as it often shows a move out of safety (DOW) to more speculative stocks.

Lots of Tech stock talk this week too with NVIDIA posting fantastic earnings.

 

An interesting read on StockCharts by Mary Ellen McGonangle.
 

 

Stock Market Update Feb 3, 2023 - Stage 1

 From a stage analysis perspective, it appears the major indexes are entering into Stage 1 and possibly Stage 2. 

I am also seeing improvements in the number of new highs vs new lows and NYSE Advance-Decline Index.

We may be climbing the Wall of Worry. I am starting to nibble at stocks with the hope that this year we move out of the market decline and into a market uptrend.

Stock Market Update - December 24, 2021

 The stage indicators this week turned green. Santa Clause rallied to bring them up.

Tech via the NasDaq took a bit of a hit in the last couple of weeks, but the 30 week moving average is still sloping upward which keeps us in stage 2.

 

 

If we look at gold versus the S&P we see gold is below the S&P. I read that as a positive indicator.

Merry Christmas!

 

End of October 2021 - Stock Market Bounce - Are we in Stage 3?

Are we possibly approaching stage 3 on the Weinstein scale? Or, are we continuing Stage 2 after getting a bounce? The GDOW and DOW both have flat moving averages, while the S&P and NASDAQ have bounced off their MA.

• Stage 2 - Advancing Phase
• 30 week moving average slopes up. 
• Close is above the 30 week Moving Average, with higher lows
• Fundamentals improve

• Stage 3 - The Top Phase
• Loses momentum
• Choppy market
• 30 week Moving Average loses upward slope and flattens 

 

 

Let's see what happens.

Stock Market Update: July 8, 2021

 From a stage analysis viewpoint, we are in Stage 2 Accumulation (see stage analysis overview here) with the market continuing to go up.

One of the gauges I like to look at is the Dow vs NYSE Advance-Decline. (Barron's used to produce it but stopped so I make my own chart.) It's a bad sign for the market when the Dow is advancing more than the NYSE, which we see in March of 2020 when COVID hit. Likewise, it's a positive sign when the NYSE is above the Dow. That's where we are now. It's one of the biggest divergences I've seen in a while.

Stories of interest:

• 123 Year Old Mechanicville hydroelectric plant mining bitcoin
• Stock rotation - tech up top
• Stockcharts - Has the market jumped from cautious to bullish?
  

COVID news of late has been more positive with hospitalization rates going down and the vaccine being administered. I have hopes of a recovery in late 2021  and into 2022.  The Atlantic has a great story about the importance of fresh air in treating airborne illnesses and how in the early part of COVID we forgot or discounted some of the measures learned during the 1918 pandemic.  See "We're Just Rediscovering a 19th Century Pandemic Strategy".

If you've ever worked in a modern office building you will appreciate the story. They are often stuffy with little air circulation and the windows don't open. I hate them. Add to that nobody can agree on the proper temperature. Often the ventilation systems are inadequate or under powered to save money.

The Market is still doing well from a stage analysis at this time. Gold appears to be entering in to stage 4.  My bets are on energy, travel stocks, and other areas that will benefit from some sort of 'back to normalcy'.

 

Stock Market Update: February 5, 2021

 Gamestop mania looks like it has come to an end. It was an interesting ride!

Gold appears to be in stage 3 to me as its 30 week moving average is flattening and price is moving under the moving average.

 

 

Some interesting stocks to keep an eye on as they look like early stage 2:

• XLE - I think this has room to grow as the economy improves.
• VIVO - Meridian  Diagnostic equipment
  
• VREX - Varex Imaging designs x-ray machinery
  
• TRIP - Trip Advisor - I think this has room to run once the economy recovers
  

 

Market Update: Oct 3, 2020

News that President Trump has contracted COVID-19 made headlines on Friday. He appears to be doing better as of this morning (WSJ).

It's possible the major indexes are in stage 3. Gold continues to be in Stage 2 but is showing signs of possibly moving into Stage 3 as well. Stimulus talks are in the works.

CNN's Fear & Greed went into greed last week. It's been in greed for awhile.

We will see.

 

 

 

Stock Market Update as of July 24, 2020 - COVID Continues, Gold Rises, Dollar Falls

I keep thinking gold has hit a top, it must be, but then as things continue on, it appears it may still be in stage 2. The dollar is falling, COVID flareups and the ramifications for people and businesses continues, however, the overall market indexes are all still above their 30 week moving averages. What is a cat to think?

I bought some of the Gold ETF in 2017 as a hedge. Didn't think too much of it and let it sit there as a rainy day investment. The question for me now is do I buy more or wait it out? In reviewing the chart, it looks like there is room for more advancement before GLD enters into stage 3. A stop loss is in order at $160. Note the resistance to move past is the $179 high in 2011. This week can be key to see if it can plow through that resistance line.

A ChartMill chart below, confirms gold is in stage 3. (ChartMill has Weinstein indicators).

 

And then Greg Schnell posted an article comparing copper and gold to the dollar.

Stock Market Update: July 17, 2020 - Let's Look at Gold

Stocks are doing well from a Stage Analysis view, with the DOW joining the other major indexes when it finally move above its 30 week moving average. Let's see if it sticks.

Gold has been getting a lot of attention lately as it reaches highs lately and the US government printing money like crazy. See this interesting Barron's Article.

I thought it would be interesting to compare gold to the DOW and S&P. If the recent crossover is any indication and works like it did in the 2009 downturn, gold may continue to move upwards. The orange line in each chart represents GLD (ETF).

How about technology? It also is on an upward trend. Martin Pring has a great blog post on it. The next coming week's will help us see if the trend will continue or reverse.

Stock Market Update: June 28, 2020

Market indicators are mixed. The recent upturn appears to be on shaky ground with Nassim Taleb calling for hedging a long tail. 

With that in mind, let's see where gold is from a stage perspective using the GLD ETF via stockcharts.

The moving average is sloping up, the close is above the 30 week moving average and fundamentals for gold are improving if you consider that it is widely viewed as a hedge for the market. The chart below shows the peak of gold during the 2009 market downturn was around $180. Current prices is $162. If we consider 180 to be the ceiling then we may have room for higher prices.

How about looking at the tech sector? The NasDaq continues to be in a stage 2 accumulation phase.

Overall, the market is choppy however, and that indicates we are still in phase 4 overall. The DOW and S&P are not in stage 2 but are still in stage 4.