Market Update: Above the 30 Week Moving Average Line

Stocks made a recovery this week with the major indexes moving above their 30 week moving average lines. If they can continue, then we may move into Stage 1.

CNN's Fear and Greed indicator is in Greed.

 

Let's watch to see what happens.

Stock Market Update - 1st Week in October

While Friday ended with a bit of a high note, this week's activity shows more negative than positive for the indicators. 

Case in point, let's look at the NYSE. The last 5 weeks have shown more 52 week lows than highs.

A look at the NYSE Advance Decline 200 day moving average on Stockcharts shows we crossed below the line at the end of September.

Finally, the major indexes have either crossed below their 30 week moving average or are touching the moving average line.

The indicators are now red.

Stock Market Update - September 24, 2023

 The promising look to the market in the last few months, specifically, Stage 1, appears to be heading in the opposite direction. Almost all the indicators are about to turn red.

Here is a look at a couple of charts.

Indicators 1 - 3 - 30 Week Moving Averages

All are approaching their 30 week moving average lines.

The Dow Chart

 

The S&P Chart

 

Indicator 5: NYSE A-D 200 Day MA

NYSE Advance-Decline’s 200 days moving average to see if it is above (bull) or below (bear). We could be about to go into bear territory.

 

Be wary. October is coming up and sometimes it is a rough month!

 

 

Stock Market Update - Mid-Year 2023

We've just finished the first half of 2023 and I thought it might be a good time to take a look at how the market is doing. From a stage analysis perspective, we are in Stage 2 for the S&P and NASDAQ, the Dow however is in Stage 1.

We haven't looked at the CNN Fear and Greed indicator in awhile. We are currently in Extreme Greed.

Stock Market Update - May 28, 2023

 As we await a debt ceiling compromise between democrats and republicans the market is up and down and up and down again. As I write this post, it appears a preliminary deal has been struck and is ready for a vote this coming week.

From a technical standpoint, it appears we are in Phase 2 Advancing for the NASDAQ and SPY. The DOW retreated this past week. All positive signs as it often shows a move out of safety (DOW) to more speculative stocks.

Lots of Tech stock talk this week too with NVIDIA posting fantastic earnings.

 

An interesting read on StockCharts by Mary Ellen McGonangle.
 

 

Stock Market Update - April 22, 2023 - Stage 1

 Most of the Weinstein indicators are in or moving to Stage 1. This stage can be rough, but at the moment appear to be in a multi-week stage 1. Here is a look at the DOW. The S&P and NASDAQ look similar.

Corporate earning reports are underway. 

Let's see what next week brings us.

Stock Market Update - Back in the Negative

This week the DOW moved beneath it's 30 week moving average and the SPY and NASDAQ's 30 meek moving average reversed and is pointing down. Any hopes of moving into Stage 1 is squashed as we are again in Stage 4 decline. See previous post for Stage Analysis.

In addition Indicator 5: NYSE Advance-Decline 200 day moving average is touching the moving average line as shown below in this StockChart's graph.

 

The only index still positive is the Global DOW.

Some are pointing to the Silicon Valley Bank (SVB) Collapse as the main reason for last week's market downturn. Investors are watching to see if a bailout will take care of investors with deposits above the FDIC’s $250,000 cap. 

Never a dull moment.

Stock Market Update Feb 3, 2023 - Stage 1

 From a stage analysis perspective, it appears the major indexes are entering into Stage 1 and possibly Stage 2. 

I am also seeing improvements in the number of new highs vs new lows and NYSE Advance-Decline Index.

We may be climbing the Wall of Worry. I am starting to nibble at stocks with the hope that this year we move out of the market decline and into a market uptrend.

January 13 2023 - Stock Market Update

 Markets are performing a little better so far in 2023. The stage analysis indicators are moving into positive territory with the exception of the NASDAQ which has been affected by weakness in tech and the ups and downs of Tesla via Mr. Musk.

Let's take a look at some charts. The Dow may be entering into Stage 1 as shown below with the upturn of the 30 week moving average.

For the first time in over a year, Indicator #5 is positive. For this indicator, we look to see if the NYSE Advance-Decline (A-D) is above or below its 200 day moving average. The divergence between the advances and declines is plotted on a chart, and the 200 day moving average is also plotted.

 

At this point I am watching and gently buying shares of some stock that I think may be in for an upward climb.

2022 Year in Review - Markets Tanked

 The year has been quite the ride! The entire year down. Here are the numbers according to this Market Watch article by William Watts.

• S&P -19.4%
• Dow -8.8%
• NASDAQ -33.1%

Pretty painful year.

I love this chart published by Jill Mislinski over at Advisor Perspectives.

Happy New Year to 2023! Let's hope it is a year we start to recover our losses.

Cheers!