Even with the little uptick on Friday, the overall week is down and we continue to be in Stage 4 Downturn. All indicators remain in the negative.
Inflation remains high, inventory of goods remains slow and sluggish, the Russian/Ukrainian war continues, COVID is still an issue, and CNN's Fear and Greed is at Extreme Fear.
No doubt about it, we are in Stage 4 downtrend. All of my indicators are in the red. The last one to go red is the global DOW which is now below its 30 week moving average.
Another indicator to watch is the 10 week moving average vs the 30 week moving average. The cross has occurred with the NASDAQ taking the most heat.
The Russian invasion of Ukraine is sadly a driver, along with inflation (gas prices anyone?), and supply chain issues. For once, COVID is not behind the bad news as most states lift their mask mandates and hopefully we return back to normal.
CNN's Fear and Greed indicator is at the lowest I've seen in a long time.
Looking at the Stan Weinstein indicators, we are in a Bear Market. All indicators except for the Global Dow are negative.
COVID cases are down and hopefully life returns to normal in 2022. So what is the problem? Inflation, Ukraine/Russia tension according to this Wall Street Journal article.
Tech, led by Facebook is taken a beating. FANG stocks are not looking too good. Apple is doing fine but the others are not. The Apple vs Facebook battle over our data is an interesting one.
Let's look at the charts. At this point, just a minor correction. We will have to wait and see if it stays minor or gets larger.
We are in a bit of a correction. The NasDaq is now in Stage 4 decline because its 30 week moving average line is now sloping downward.
One of my favorite Stan Weinstein indicators is to chart the difference between NYSE stocks hitting their 52 week high vs those hitting their 52 week low. He said not to use it alone but in conjunction with the other indicators. If we take a look at it now, it shows that we are in the beginning of a correction. How far it goes is hard to say, this could be a normal correction or if tensions continue with Russia, inflation doesn't budge and if there are more restrictions due to COVID which is also driving inflation, then it could continue. Hard to say.
My indicators are mixed this week. Nothing too horrible, mostly minor showing of weakness in some indicators. The NASDAQ is below its 30 week moving average just a little bit, the NYSE had more lows than highs, and the NYSE/DJIA were both down.
One of my favorite charts, the Dow vs GLD, shows the Dow outperforming gold. I view this as a good sign.
What's the problem? A chip shortage. The US is looking to boost more manufacturing here.
How about groceries? Tried to buy any of those lately? Around here the veggies shelves are empty. My plan? Go to the local farmer's market. A good idea anyway. Lots of fresh veggies and not pesticides to boot!
2021 was a good year for the market! In general up 20%. Not bad. Who would have thought a pandemic would be good for the stock market?
Here's how the major indexes performed:
A few visuals to show the year.
S&P
NASDAQ
DOW
BitCoin to US Dollar
Friday saw a sell off of about 2% to 2.5% amid concerns of a new COVID varient in South Africa.
Let's look at the indicators.
Interesting articles for further reading:
Markets have taken a bit of a bounce as we continue in Stage 3. The moving average line is sloping up.
It will be nice if things can get back to boring wouldn't it? This week we are seeing countries impose lock downs as COVID cases go up in Europe.
Stockcharts' Joe Duarte has an article on Fed rates and Covid and where are we in the market?
This past week was a downer, it just seemed the bad news wouldn't stop. Delta variants, Afghanistan pull out blunder, and tropical storm Henri! Maybe it's just me, but I am getting tired.
From a stage analysis point of view, things appear
to be okay. Some of the indexes are flirting with their 30 week moving
average lines, but are still above the line.
Interesting bitcoin news:
https://news.bitcoin.com/jpmorgan-wells-fargo-launching-bitcoin-funds-sec-filings/
For the first time in a while, markets were down at the end of the week. The worst since February.
Contributing factors include expected rate hikes by the Fed.
From a stage analysis view, we are still flying high, but and this is a big but, the 3 major indexes look poised to go below their 30 week moving averages. If this happens we may be entering stage 4.
CNN's Fear and Greed indicator is the lowest it has been in quite some time.
Market continue to be in an uptrend. All indicators remain up. Jobless claims are going down and with the COVID vaccine being distributed the economy looks to be poised for a recovery. I am interested in energy and travel stocks.
XLE Spider is showing signs of recovery and has a ways to go to get to the last high. Even with the move to electronic vehicles we will still need energy for years to come.
An interesting set of news articles surfaced this week related to the COVID outbreak's potential source being the Wuhon Lab. Vanity Fair has a nice article here.
Bitcoin has been a bit of a ride these last couple of weeks as Elon Musk is in then out.
Markets are mixed. The NASDAQ touched it's 30 week moving average line but finished just a hair above it. Gold is starting to move up a bit and the other averages are still above their 30 week moving average line.
CNN's Fear and Greed indicator is in Fear for the first time in quite awhile.
Crypto currencies continue to be in the news with lots and lots of speculation. We also saw a major hack into a US pipeline with a payment of $5M coinage to the bad guys.
COVID news is also mixed. Countries with the vaccine are doing okay while others are struggling.
The market continues to be in an uptrend. All indicators are green at this point.
CNN's Fear and Greed indicator is in the green.
COVID continues with the JNJ vaccine getting sidelined for a bit while a rare blood clot problem is looked into further. JNJ reports earnings soon.
By the way, have I mentioned how much I have come to hate the phrase "out of an abundance of caution"? It is seriously overused at this point.
As states open up restrictions, I expect a recovery to continue.
March is turning out to be a good month for investments and at this time all indicators are up.
Bitcoin continues to reach all time highs. Fidelity is considering launching a bitcoin ETF.
Gold is officially in stage 4.
COVID vaccinations are underway and the one does J&J shot is finally being delivered and administered.
