Stock Market Update - 1st Week in October

While Friday ended with a bit of a high note, this week's activity shows more negative than positive for the indicators. 

Case in point, let's look at the NYSE. The last 5 weeks have shown more 52 week lows than highs.

A look at the NYSE Advance Decline 200 day moving average on Stockcharts shows we crossed below the line at the end of September.

Finally, the major indexes have either crossed below their 30 week moving average or are touching the moving average line.

The indicators are now red.

Stock Market Update Feb 3, 2023 - Stage 1

 From a stage analysis perspective, it appears the major indexes are entering into Stage 1 and possibly Stage 2. 

I am also seeing improvements in the number of new highs vs new lows and NYSE Advance-Decline Index.

We may be climbing the Wall of Worry. I am starting to nibble at stocks with the hope that this year we move out of the market decline and into a market uptrend.

Stock Market Update - December 10, 2022

 Stocks are starting to look a little bit better with some of the indicators getting poised for positivity. We're not there yet but at least there is some improvement. It's been a about a year for this market's downturn.

Green represents a glimmer of hope but doesn't make the indicator positive until the moving average line slopes up.

Indicators:

1. DOW - 30 Week Moving Average Line flat, close above the line
2. S&P - 30 Week Moving Average Line flat, close above the line
3. NASDAQ - Below the line 
4. Global DOW - 30 Week Moving Average Line flat, close above the line
5. NYSE AD and DOW Convergence - Both down
6. NYSE AD 200 Day Moving Average
7. NYSE 52 Week Highs and Lows

 

 I am hopeful 2023 will be the year we turn the tide, until then let's watch the tape!

Stock Market Update - January 28, 2022

 We are in a bit of a correction. The NasDaq is now in Stage 4 decline because its 30 week moving average line is now sloping downward.

 

The other major indexes are in Stage 3 and possibly heading for Stage 4.

One of my favorite Stan Weinstein indicators is to chart the difference between NYSE stocks hitting their 52 week high vs those hitting their 52 week low. He said not to use it alone but in conjunction with the other indicators. If we take a look at it now, it shows that we are in the beginning of a correction. How far it goes is hard to say, this could be a normal correction or if tensions continue with Russia, inflation doesn't budge and if there are more restrictions due to COVID which is also driving inflation, then it could continue. Hard to say. 

 

 

Stock Market Update - January 21, 2022 - Signals Down

 From my perspective, we are now entering into Stage 3 for the major indexes, all of which are now below their 30 week moving averages. At this point, the moving average line is slightly up or flat, it is not going down into Stage 4. Interestingly, the global Dow is above. Generally it lags the US markets but not this time.

 

• Broad indexes except GDOW are below their 30 week moving averages 
• DJIA vs NYSE A-D: Both Down
• Divergence: DJIA vs NYSE High/Low: Both Down
• 200 Day MA NYSE A-D: Below the line for the first time in a long time
• NYSE  52 Wk Highs-Lows Diff: -519 meaning more stocks were at their lows

Tech took the biggest hit this week.

 

It appears we may be headed for a correction. All of the indicators are red or about to turn red.

Let's look at the indicators.

1. DJIA vs 30 week MA: Below
   
2. S&P  vs 30 week MA:Touching
3. Nasdaq vs 30 week MA:Touching
4. Global DOW vs 30 week MA: Below
5. DJIA vs NYSE A-D: Both Down
6. Divergence: DJIA vs NYSE High/Low: Both Down
7. 200 Day MA NYSE A-D:Touching
8. NYSE  52 Wk Highs-Lows Diff: -182
   

 

Market Update November 26, 2021 - Bumpy COVID Varient in Africa

Friday saw a sell off of about 2% to 2.5% amid concerns of a new COVID varient in South Africa.

Let's look at the indicators.

1. DJIA vs 30 week MA: Touching the moving average line
2. S&P  vs 30 week MA: Above
3. Nasdaq vs 30 week MA: Above
4. Global DOW vs 30 week MA: Below
5. DJIA vs NYSE A-D: Both Down
6. Divergence: DJIA vs NYSE High/Low: Both Down
7. 200 Day MA NYSE A-D: Above
8. NYSE  52 Wk Highs-Lows Diff: -182
   

 

Interesting articles for further reading:

• Greg Schnell - Ignore the News
  

• Barchart COVID Market Impact  
  

Stock Market Update: Week Ending August 14, 2020

 From a stage analysis view, markets are in mixed territory. I rate 4 of the indicators as neutral. The DOW, global DOW and S&P are above their 30 week moving average line, but the MA is sloping down or flat. Not exactly a sign of strength.

One of my favorite Stan Weinstein charts is the NYSE High Low Differential which looks at the difference between the number of stocks hitting their 52 week highs and 52 week lows.  Each week I look at the number of new 52 week highs and the number of new 52 week lows. For example, this week we had 44 stock reaching new highs and 7 stocks reaching new lows. Not much action at all. In a strong recovery the numbers are more like 389 to 30 respectively. So while this indicator is in the green, it's not by much and the highs versus lows is not that broad.

Here is my chart. I have found that this one chart can give a pretty decent indicator of the overall market, even though it's a very simple chart.

 

 

 

 

 

Also keep in mind we are heading into an election plus COVID is not over yet so the market can get pretty choppy yet.