Stock Market Update - December 10, 2022

 Stocks are starting to look a little bit better with some of the indicators getting poised for positivity. We're not there yet but at least there is some improvement. It's been a about a year for this market's downturn.

Green represents a glimmer of hope but doesn't make the indicator positive until the moving average line slopes up.

Indicators:

1. DOW - 30 Week Moving Average Line flat, close above the line
2. S&P - 30 Week Moving Average Line flat, close above the line
3. NASDAQ - Below the line 
4. Global DOW - 30 Week Moving Average Line flat, close above the line
5. NYSE AD and DOW Convergence - Both down
6. NYSE AD 200 Day Moving Average
7. NYSE 52 Week Highs and Lows

 

 I am hopeful 2023 will be the year we turn the tide, until then let's watch the tape!

Stocks Take a Tumble - Fed Chair Speech of Pain

 Just when it looked as though the market was starting to look up, with the big indexes moving above their 30 week moving average, Fed Chair Powell let it rip that we are in for more pain. Yikes!

As Mary Ellen McGonagle put's it "Fed Chair Powell's comments today that bringing down prices "is likely to require a sustained period of below-trend growth and an increase in unemployment" brought the markets to its knees."

My favorite chart is offered up by Jill Mislinski at Advisor Perspectives in this article. 

With all that, we are clearly still in Stage 4 decline. Here is a chart showing where we are on the S&P. Notice the 30 week moving average continues to slope down.

 

Stock Market Update - Continued Down Trend

 The markets continue to be in Stage 4 Decline. The sell-off while prolonged is not as deep as the last one that occurred in 2020. Tech is hardest hit this time around.

My friend Jimmy had recommended iBonds to me a few months ago. They are a great way to earn a high interest rate with some caveats. Including them in your portfolio helps balance out market downturns. With inflation going up they are about to increase to near 9% return.

To learn more read these articles:

• I-Bonds at 7%
• Treasury Site 
• Silver Lining of Surging Interest Rates
  

Stock Market Update - January 28, 2022

 We are in a bit of a correction. The NasDaq is now in Stage 4 decline because its 30 week moving average line is now sloping downward.

 

The other major indexes are in Stage 3 and possibly heading for Stage 4.

One of my favorite Stan Weinstein indicators is to chart the difference between NYSE stocks hitting their 52 week high vs those hitting their 52 week low. He said not to use it alone but in conjunction with the other indicators. If we take a look at it now, it shows that we are in the beginning of a correction. How far it goes is hard to say, this could be a normal correction or if tensions continue with Russia, inflation doesn't budge and if there are more restrictions due to COVID which is also driving inflation, then it could continue. Hard to say. 

 

 

Stock Market Update - January 14, 2022

 My indicators are mixed this week. Nothing too horrible, mostly minor showing of weakness in some indicators. The NASDAQ is below its 30 week moving average just a little bit, the NYSE had more lows than highs, and the NYSE/DJIA were both down.

One of my favorite charts, the Dow vs GLD, shows the Dow outperforming gold. I view this as a good sign.

Have you tried to buy a car lately? Used or new they are hard to come by. Dealer lots are empty. So empty in fact that they have used vehicles in the show room and dissuade you from buying used (where they usually make a nice profit) for fear they won't have any example of the model to show potential buyers. Wow.

What's the problem? A chip shortage. The US is looking to boost more manufacturing here.

How about groceries? Tried to buy any of those lately? Around here the veggies shelves are empty. My plan? Go to the local farmer's market. A good idea anyway. Lots of fresh veggies and not pesticides to boot!

It appears we may be headed for a correction. All of the indicators are red or about to turn red.

Let's look at the indicators.

1. DJIA vs 30 week MA: Below
   
2. S&P  vs 30 week MA:Touching
3. Nasdaq vs 30 week MA:Touching
4. Global DOW vs 30 week MA: Below
5. DJIA vs NYSE A-D: Both Down
6. Divergence: DJIA vs NYSE High/Low: Both Down
7. 200 Day MA NYSE A-D:Touching
8. NYSE  52 Wk Highs-Lows Diff: -182
   

 

Stock Market Update - June 4, 2021

Market continue to be in an uptrend. All indicators remain up. Jobless claims are going down and with the COVID vaccine being distributed the economy looks to be poised for a recovery. I am interested in energy and travel stocks.

XLE Spider is showing signs of recovery and has a ways to go to get to the last high. Even with the move to electronic vehicles we will still need energy for years to come.

An interesting set of news articles surfaced this week related to the COVID outbreak's potential source being the Wuhon Lab. Vanity Fair has a nice article here. 

Bitcoin has been a bit of a ride these last couple of weeks as Elon Musk is in then out. 

 

 

Stock Market Update - May 14, 2021

 Markets are mixed. The NASDAQ touched it's 30 week moving average line but finished just a hair above it. Gold is starting to move up a bit and the other averages are still above their 30 week moving average line. 

CNN's Fear and Greed indicator is in Fear for the first time in quite awhile.

 

Crypto currencies continue to be in the news with lots and lots of speculation. We also saw a major hack into a US pipeline with a payment of $5M coinage to the bad guys.

COVID news is also mixed. Countries with the vaccine are doing okay while others are struggling.

 

Stock Market Update - January 31, 2021

 Looks like we are finally getting a bit of a correction.

There has been lots of turbulence and excitement over the last couple of weeks related to GameStop and the Robinhood app. (New York Times article) 

Individual investors are still alive and kicking, and reading on reddit apparently. (CNN business article)

Meanwhile, back to stage analysis... while we had the first downturn in a while, the indicators are still green. A pullback will be welcome and logical.

 

 

 

Stock Market Update - Week Ending 12/11/20

 There has been some changes in the market as we get news that the FDA approved emergency use of the COVID-19 vaccine. "While not an FDA approval, today’s emergency use authorization of the Pfizer-BioNTech COVID-19 Vaccine holds the promise to alter the course of this pandemic in the United States,” said Peter Marks, M.D., Ph.D., Director of the FDA’s Center for Biologics Evaluation and Research.

With anticipation that the other vaccines will also get approved, and preparation for distribution of the Pfizer-BioNTech vaccine, there is some hope on the horizon. 

Now may be the time to trim gold if you have it. With the good news on COVID and the Gold ETF moving below it's 30 week moving average line, gold may be moving into Stage3. The moving average line itself is starting to flatten out. We will see.

 

 

 

Stock Market Update: Week Ending November 6, 2020

 The stock market had a nice bounce this week while we wait for the results of the Presidential Election. It's pretty close. According to The Associated Press, as of this morning, it Biden has a small lead over Trump. If it plays out anything like the Bush vs. Gore election, we may have to wait until December to know who wins.

In 2000, the markets were already on a downturn prior to the election so I would be careful in making any predictions on the impact of this one on the market. Plus, we have the whole COVID pandemic to deal with and there is no comparison to that in 2000.

From a stage analysis, we are still in Stage 3.

Stock Market Update as of July 24, 2020 - COVID Continues, Gold Rises, Dollar Falls

I keep thinking gold has hit a top, it must be, but then as things continue on, it appears it may still be in stage 2. The dollar is falling, COVID flareups and the ramifications for people and businesses continues, however, the overall market indexes are all still above their 30 week moving averages. What is a cat to think?

I bought some of the Gold ETF in 2017 as a hedge. Didn't think too much of it and let it sit there as a rainy day investment. The question for me now is do I buy more or wait it out? In reviewing the chart, it looks like there is room for more advancement before GLD enters into stage 3. A stop loss is in order at $160. Note the resistance to move past is the $179 high in 2011. This week can be key to see if it can plow through that resistance line.

A ChartMill chart below, confirms gold is in stage 3. (ChartMill has Weinstein indicators).

 

And then Greg Schnell posted an article comparing copper and gold to the dollar.

Stock Market Update: June 28, 2020

Market indicators are mixed. The recent upturn appears to be on shaky ground with Nassim Taleb calling for hedging a long tail. 

With that in mind, let's see where gold is from a stage perspective using the GLD ETF via stockcharts.

The moving average is sloping up, the close is above the 30 week moving average and fundamentals for gold are improving if you consider that it is widely viewed as a hedge for the market. The chart below shows the peak of gold during the 2009 market downturn was around $180. Current prices is $162. If we consider 180 to be the ceiling then we may have room for higher prices.

How about looking at the tech sector? The NasDaq continues to be in a stage 2 accumulation phase.

Overall, the market is choppy however, and that indicates we are still in phase 4 overall. The DOW and S&P are not in stage 2 but are still in stage 4.
 

Stock Market Update: Week Ending June 5, 2020

Big rebound in markets this week with an upbeat jobs report.

From a stage analysis perspective, we have the following:

• DOW & S&P : Stage 4. The 30 week moving average is still sloping down or is flat.
• NASDAQ: Stage 1: Closing price above the 30 week moving average and the moving average is sloping upward

 The CNN Fear and Greed index is showing a little bit of improvement the first time a long time.

Many areas in the US are re-opening in phases and fingers crossed, we can re-open without a resurgence in cases. We all need to get out of the house!!  
 

Stock Market Update - October 18, 2019

The DOW, S&P, NASDAQ and GDOW are all hovering just above their 30 week moving averages.  The CNN Fear & Greed Indicator is dead center.

The Equifax breach news just keeps getting worse. Using easy to guess ids and passwords is a big no-no in basic security.   

 If you're looking for a good podcast, try Afford Anything's interview with the Millionaire Teacher. 

Stock Market and Trade Wars

The on again, off again trade wars heated up last week. As of this morning they are back to off again.With the elections coming up, I don't see any resolution for awhile. We are probably in for a choppy market. All 3 major indexes cut through their 30 week moving average and could be entering into a stage 3 cycle.