Stock Market Update - January 28, 2022

 We are in a bit of a correction. The NasDaq is now in Stage 4 decline because its 30 week moving average line is now sloping downward.

 

The other major indexes are in Stage 3 and possibly heading for Stage 4.

One of my favorite Stan Weinstein indicators is to chart the difference between NYSE stocks hitting their 52 week high vs those hitting their 52 week low. He said not to use it alone but in conjunction with the other indicators. If we take a look at it now, it shows that we are in the beginning of a correction. How far it goes is hard to say, this could be a normal correction or if tensions continue with Russia, inflation doesn't budge and if there are more restrictions due to COVID which is also driving inflation, then it could continue. Hard to say. 

 

 

Stock Market Update - January 21, 2022 - Signals Down

 From my perspective, we are now entering into Stage 3 for the major indexes, all of which are now below their 30 week moving averages. At this point, the moving average line is slightly up or flat, it is not going down into Stage 4. Interestingly, the global Dow is above. Generally it lags the US markets but not this time.

 

• Broad indexes except GDOW are below their 30 week moving averages 
• DJIA vs NYSE A-D: Both Down
• Divergence: DJIA vs NYSE High/Low: Both Down
• 200 Day MA NYSE A-D: Below the line for the first time in a long time
• NYSE  52 Wk Highs-Lows Diff: -519 meaning more stocks were at their lows

Tech took the biggest hit this week.

 

Stock Market Update - December 10, 2021 - Bounce

Stocks bounced back this week with the major indexes bouncing back above their 30 week moving averages. Last week I thought we might be heading into stage 3 but not so fast!

Even Indicator 5 - NYSE Advance-Decline 200 Day Moving Average bounced up.

CNN's Fear and Greed improved slightly this week as well.

On the other hand, it would appear we are now back to wearing masks. At least in New York. Starts on Monday.

My friend J.A. provided a nice link to an article by Jill Mislinski on Advisor Perspectives, that takes moving average analysis to a macro view of 10 months vs what we use here which is 30 week. It's a good read and I plan to add it to my monthly review.

Stock Market Update: November 21, 2021

Markets have taken a bit of a bounce as we continue in Stage 3. The moving average line is sloping up.

It will be nice if things can get back to boring wouldn't it? This week we are seeing countries impose lock downs as COVID cases go up in Europe.

Stockcharts' Joe Duarte has an article on Fed rates and Covid and where are we in the market?

End of October 2021 - Stock Market Bounce - Are we in Stage 3?

Are we possibly approaching stage 3 on the Weinstein scale? Or, are we continuing Stage 2 after getting a bounce? The GDOW and DOW both have flat moving averages, while the S&P and NASDAQ have bounced off their MA.

• Stage 2 - Advancing Phase
• 30 week moving average slopes up. 
• Close is above the 30 week Moving Average, with higher lows
• Fundamentals improve

• Stage 3 - The Top Phase
• Loses momentum
• Choppy market
• 30 week Moving Average loses upward slope and flattens 

 

 

Let's see what happens.

Stock Market Update Week Ending September 17, 2021

The Stage Indicators are beginning to point to weakness in the market with the major indexes about to breach their 30 week moving average line. We are due for a pullback and may see one in the coming weeks.

The FINVIZ.com heatmap from Friday is mostly Red.

 

Drivers appear to be financially related vs. COVID. China's Evergrande may not be able to pay it's debt, talk of Fed tapering, and debt ceiling debates.

Here is a snapshot of the S&P which appears to be entering into Stage 3.

Hang tight.

Stock Market Update: February 5, 2021

 Gamestop mania looks like it has come to an end. It was an interesting ride!

Gold appears to be in stage 3 to me as its 30 week moving average is flattening and price is moving under the moving average.

 

 

Some interesting stocks to keep an eye on as they look like early stage 2:

• XLE - I think this has room to grow as the economy improves.
• VIVO - Meridian  Diagnostic equipment
  
• VREX - Varex Imaging designs x-ray machinery
  
• TRIP - Trip Advisor - I think this has room to run once the economy recovers
  

 

Stock Market Update - Week Ending 12/11/20

 There has been some changes in the market as we get news that the FDA approved emergency use of the COVID-19 vaccine. "While not an FDA approval, today’s emergency use authorization of the Pfizer-BioNTech COVID-19 Vaccine holds the promise to alter the course of this pandemic in the United States,” said Peter Marks, M.D., Ph.D., Director of the FDA’s Center for Biologics Evaluation and Research.

With anticipation that the other vaccines will also get approved, and preparation for distribution of the Pfizer-BioNTech vaccine, there is some hope on the horizon. 

Now may be the time to trim gold if you have it. With the good news on COVID and the Gold ETF moving below it's 30 week moving average line, gold may be moving into Stage3. The moving average line itself is starting to flatten out. We will see.

 

 

 

Stock Market Update: Week Ending November 6, 2020

 The stock market had a nice bounce this week while we wait for the results of the Presidential Election. It's pretty close. According to The Associated Press, as of this morning, it Biden has a small lead over Trump. If it plays out anything like the Bush vs. Gore election, we may have to wait until December to know who wins.

In 2000, the markets were already on a downturn prior to the election so I would be careful in making any predictions on the impact of this one on the market. Plus, we have the whole COVID pandemic to deal with and there is no comparison to that in 2000.

From a stage analysis, we are still in Stage 3.

Market Update: Oct 3, 2020

News that President Trump has contracted COVID-19 made headlines on Friday. He appears to be doing better as of this morning (WSJ).

It's possible the major indexes are in stage 3. Gold continues to be in Stage 2 but is showing signs of possibly moving into Stage 3 as well. Stimulus talks are in the works.

CNN's Fear & Greed went into greed last week. It's been in greed for awhile.

We will see.