Stock Market Update: Stage 4 Decline

With the 30 week moving averages now sloping down, and all the indicators in the red, we are officially in Stage 4. Never, ever buy during a stage 4 decline!

Stock Market Update: Thanksgiving

Well the market is officially in correction mode. All indicators are in the red zone. The FANG stocks are leading the way, plus apple, resulting in a downturn for tech. Hard to believe considering they were the darlings of the market a few months ago.

CNN's Fear and Greed indicator is firmly in Extreme Fear.

Bitcoin has dropped to $3,974!

We are still in stage 3 because the 30 week moving average has not turned down. It is flat at this point.
 

Stock Market Analysis: Stage 3

By the look of things the market is in Stage 3 territory. The major indexes are closing below the 30 week moving average. The 30 week moving average is still sloping up however so I am calling it a choppy market at this point.

CNN's Fear and Greed Index is at Extreme Greed. Let's see what the week ahead brings.

Stock Market Update: Some indicators beginning to fade

We are starting to see a little bit of decline in the S&P and NasDaq. That coupled with the GDOW has us with 3 red indicators for the major indexes. The Dow is still above its 30 week moving average line, but just barely. It has been awhile since we've had a correction so don't be surprised if we get one.

The number of new lows vs. new highs has been in favor of new lows for the last 3 weeks. Another sign, bringing us to a total of 4 reds.

Stock Market Update: Market Remains in the Green

All the indicators, with the exception of GDOW, are in the green. The global dow is hovering just below the 30 week moving average and could join the other indicators into green territory this week.

Stock Market Update:

The indicators are doing fairly well with the exception of the Global DOW which is below its 30 week moving average. We seem to be churning a bit. Decision Point blog has a nice article on the week.

Oil prices may drop as producers (OPEC, Russia, USA) boost output. Don't expect to see any benefits at the gas station yet though. XLE appears to be in a Stage 2, let's see if it can keep the momentum or if it will be short lived.


An interesting article in the NY Times talking about the continued use of antibiotics in our food system to fatten up livestock. Another good reason to support the local producers at farmer's markets and in grocery stores.

Weekly Stock Market Update: Correction Over?

All indicators turned green this week and it is possible we've moved out of the correction of the last couple of week's. CNN's Fear and Greed is neutral.

In the new's. 

• It's about time! Food manufacturer's vow to take out trans fat.

• Deep breathing and yoga are good for your mind. 

Weekly Market Udpate: Mixed

The major indexes are hovering either just above, or just below, their 30 week moving averages. Inflation is rising a bit, and so are gas prices. BitCoin made a minor comeback last week too.

 

Weekly Stock Market Update: Mixed Correction

The Stage Analysis signals are mixed. All major indexes are below their 30 week moving averages, but just barely. Trade wars are spurring instability in the markets.

Bitcoin takes a bashing as more governments are looking to ban it's use.

Weekly Stock Market Update: Mixed

We had a little improvement last week, however I still remain cautious. The S&P and Dow and below their 30 week moving average. 

Trade wars are in the news and China announced tariffs on imports.

BitCoin has been falling pretty hard, along with other crypto curriences in the last few weeks.

Weekly Stock Market Update: Stage 3?

This past week saw a break of the 30 week moving average for the DOW, S&P, and Global Dow. The NASAQ did not, but is close. The NYSE Hi/Low and other indicators are moving to the red. This most likely is a stage 3 entry.

Fear and Greed is extreme fearful.

Most accounts of the cause for the decline are pointing their fingers at the trade wars started by tariffs implemented by the Trump Administration.

Weekly Stock Market Update: Not in Bear Territory Yet!

According to the Weinstein stage analysis, we didn't make it into stage 4 with the market correction. We might be entering into Stage 3.

For a recap:
Stage Analysis:

• Stage 1 - Basing Phase
•  30 week moving average loses its downward slope and starts to improve
• Stage 2 - Advancing Phase
• 30 week moving average slopes up. 
• Close is above the 30 week moving average, with higher lows
•  Fundamentals improve
• Stage 3 - The Top Phase
• Loses momentum
• Choppy market
• 30 week moving average loses upward slope and flattens
• Stage 4 - Declining Phase
•  Close line below Moving average
• 30 week moving average is sloping down

McClellon has a good article this week. Stock Market in a Rogue Wave.

Let's see how it goes this week.
 
  

Weekly Market Update: Some Turbulance

The markets are in a bit of a correction. My indicators are not fully in the red at this point, so it is a minor correction for now.

Trump announced tariffs last week and we are on schedule for rate hikes this year.  

If the major indexes break through their 30 week moving averages, then I will call a full blown correction. We'll see what this week brings us.

 

Weekly Market Update: Recovery

While the 10% pull back was not as large as the 20% pullback in 1987, it was still exciting for a market that just doesn't want to stay down for the count. Jesse Felder has a blog post referring to an interesting read last October by Robert Shiller outlining how a drop in the market can still happen along with the psychology behind it. See the New York Times article.

The CNN Fear & Greed Index is logging Extreme Fear. A reading we haven't seen in months.

And finally, one of my favorite blogs, Decision Point, has an in-depth review of the market titled, Bear Market Rally Over?

At this point the Stan Weinstein indicators are all back in the green (minus the dividend to Dow). The major indexes came close to their weekly moving averages but didn't actually touch them.

Stock Market Update: Finally, a Pull Back!

I don't know about you, but I've been waiting for some sort of pull back for months. The market has been too steady on it's upward climb. This week we had the strongest pull back in months! All the major indexes came close to touching their 30 week moving average line last week. See the chart below.

Are we in a bear market? Too soon to tell (and not yet signaled in my indicators), but here are some interesting articles:

• DP Weekly Wrap over at Stockcharts.com
• Don't Panic It's Just A Correction over at Investors.com 
• Stock are expected to rise today - Barchart.com

Stock Market Update: A Little Pull Back

Last week saw the first pull back in months. A much needed pull back if you ask me.  The moving averages are still above their 30 week line, but we did see a decline. The NYSE and Dow were both down for the week. See this CNN post for speculation on why markets are down for the week.

Bitcoin is also falling, rather sharply. Tim Ferriss has a really good cryptocurrency show if you want a little background. The interview with Nick Szabo is pretty interesting.

Stock Market Update: Continued Extremes

Tax cuts were approved, the government shutdown abated for a month, and we continue to see Extreme Greed on the CNN stock market scale. All of my indicators are in the green. Bitcoin continues to have it's ups and downs, and frankly feels a bit more normal than our stock market.

Market Update: Government Shutdown

Indicators remain positive, bitcoin gets volatile and the federal government is in shutdown mode. Futures for the day are down but the CNN Fear and Greed calculator is screaming Extreme Greed. We'll see how this plays out.



 

End of 2017: Market's Up

2017 was a good year and in keeping with the theory of good market returns for a first year president. Not too shabby! By all indicators, we are still in a stage 2 rally.

Returns for the year:

• SPY 19.81%
• DVY 11.96%
• QQQ 31.84%
• BTC (BitCoin) 1629%

 CNN has a a nice article on 1st year president performance.
  
In the science realm, Rush University Medical Center published a great article about the benefits of daily eating of leafy greens! One of the ways leafy greens help us is by feeding your good gut bacteria. Power up Pop-Eye. 

This green goddess recipe from Thug Kitchen is amazing. Use it on a big pile of greens and enjoy.