Stock Market Update - December 10, 2022

 Stocks are starting to look a little bit better with some of the indicators getting poised for positivity. We're not there yet but at least there is some improvement. It's been a about a year for this market's downturn.

Green represents a glimmer of hope but doesn't make the indicator positive until the moving average line slopes up.

Indicators:

1. DOW - 30 Week Moving Average Line flat, close above the line
2. S&P - 30 Week Moving Average Line flat, close above the line
3. NASDAQ - Below the line 
4. Global DOW - 30 Week Moving Average Line flat, close above the line
5. NYSE AD and DOW Convergence - Both down
6. NYSE AD 200 Day Moving Average
7. NYSE 52 Week Highs and Lows

 

 I am hopeful 2023 will be the year we turn the tide, until then let's watch the tape!

Stocks Gain in Positivity - Is there hope?

 The last couple of weeks are showing some signs of hope for stocks. October had a big gain. I am hopeful we are beginning to see a turn around and then even better if we start to climb the wall of worry.

CNN's Fear and Greed Indicator is at Greed

The Finviz Heat Map for the last month is mostly green.

 

And finally, the Dow poked about its 30 week moving average line.

A cat can hope!

Stock Market Update: Shorts vs Buyers SDS vs. SPX

 This week the market had a few days with big swings up and then back down again. A lot of action.

One comparison I like to do is to compare the short SPY ETF to the S&P index. As we can see below the last cross over occurred in September. The SDS is above the SPY signalling we have more short action than buying action. Not a good sign.

October can be a loss harvest month with the mutual funds and it's possible that is contributing to some of the downside. All indicators remain in the red.

Another Bad Week on Wallstreet

 After a little bit of optimism, we are back to a decline in the weekly numbers. 

The Fed plans another rate hike to battle inflation with interest rates near 4% by year end.

Fedex profit warning.

We continue to be Stage 4 Decline.

Stocks Take a Tumble - Fed Chair Speech of Pain

 Just when it looked as though the market was starting to look up, with the big indexes moving above their 30 week moving average, Fed Chair Powell let it rip that we are in for more pain. Yikes!

As Mary Ellen McGonagle put's it "Fed Chair Powell's comments today that bringing down prices "is likely to require a sustained period of below-trend growth and an increase in unemployment" brought the markets to its knees."

My favorite chart is offered up by Jill Mislinski at Advisor Perspectives in this article. 

With all that, we are clearly still in Stage 4 decline. Here is a chart showing where we are on the S&P. Notice the 30 week moving average continues to slope down.

 

Stock Market Update - July 29, 2022

This week ended with a glimmer of hope as the market bounced up a little bit. From a stage analysis perspective, we are still in stage 4 because the major indexes are still below their 30 week moving average and all the other indicators are also in the red.

Notable news include:

• Fed rate increase
• Tech earnings: Apple and Alphabet strong, Amazon 2nd losing quarter
• July posted the best market rally since November 2020

 

 

If we have another couple of good weeks, we may see the major indexes above their moving average...

 

Stock Market Bounce - June 24, 2022

This week we had a little bounce. Interestingly though, there were still more new lows than new highs in the NYSE.

Let's compare the 2008-2009 downturn in the NasDaq to our current downturn.

 

 2008 - 2009 crash - Long Period of time - about 1 year and 4 months

Current downturn in NasDaq - about 7 months so far.

We are obviously still in Stage 4 - downturn! Let's see what develops over the next few months.

Stock Market Update - June 3, 2022

This week and the week prior, saw some stabilization on the downward trend we've been in since December 2021. All my indicators remain in the red however. We don't know if this is just a pause and we don't know which direction we will go from here. We are still in Stage 4 decline.

Looking at market sectors, the only well performing sectors for the last month are Energy, Utilities and Materials. Especially interesting is XLE which lagged the market recovery from COVID up until recently as it now outperforms the others. See this Stockcharts graph.

Stock Market Update - Stage 4 Decline Continues

 Even with the little uptick on Friday, the overall week is down and we continue to be in Stage 4 Downturn. All indicators remain in the negative.

• Stage 4 - Declining Phase
• Close line below the 30 week Moving Average (MA)
• 30 week Moving Average is sloping down

 

Inflation remains high, inventory of goods remains slow and sluggish, the Russian/Ukrainian war continues, COVID is still an issue, and CNN's Fear and Greed is at Extreme Fear.

 

 

 

Stock Market Update - Continued Down Trend

 The markets continue to be in Stage 4 Decline. The sell-off while prolonged is not as deep as the last one that occurred in 2020. Tech is hardest hit this time around.

My friend Jimmy had recommended iBonds to me a few months ago. They are a great way to earn a high interest rate with some caveats. Including them in your portfolio helps balance out market downturns. With inflation going up they are about to increase to near 9% return.

To learn more read these articles:

• I-Bonds at 7%
• Treasury Site 
• Silver Lining of Surging Interest Rates
  

Stock Market Update - April Fool's 2022

 This week saw a little bounce, but the major indexes have not broken above their 30 week moving average lines.

Wishing Wealth feels this could be a bad sign. Too many breakouts not making it.

Jill Mislinski at Advisors Perspectives is showing mixed signals with the S&P analysis signaling to be in cash, however, the longer view of the Ivy Portfolios are a mix of cash and invested.

CNN's Fear and Greed has moved up a bit. It had been in the dumps for weeks.

We shall wait and see.

Stock Market Update - March 18, 2022 - Little Bounce

We are still in Stage 4 decline, however all 3 indexes did have a nice uptrend for the week.

One indicator to keep an eye on is the Dow vs Gold. They are about to cross. If they do indeed cross, then I view that as a sign of trouble. As of the end of this week, the bad trend reverted with gold dipping down. See this stockcharts link.

The government in contemplating an end to Daylight Savings - please let it be so!

The Sunshine Protection Act has passed the Senate and is awaiting House review.

Unfortunately the war in Ukraine continues.

 

 

Stock Marrket Update - Stage 4 - Stormy Weather

No doubt about it, we are in Stage 4 downtrend. All of my indicators are in the red. The last one to go red is the global DOW which is now below its 30 week moving average.

Another indicator to watch is the 10 week moving average vs the 30 week moving average. The cross has occurred with the NASDAQ taking the most heat.  

The Russian invasion of Ukraine is sadly a driver, along with inflation (gas prices anyone?), and supply chain issues. For once, COVID is not behind the bad news as most states lift their mask mandates and hopefully we return back to normal.

CNN's Fear and Greed indicator is at the lowest I've seen in a long time.

 

 

 

Stock Market Update - Feb 18, 2022 - Gold approaching Dow

 Another bad week for stocks. One of the indicators I like to use is the Gold vs. Dow chart. At the moment, gold is approaching the Dow's moving average line.

Generally when gold prices rise and stock prices go down it is a sign of a bad market. 

Stock Market Update - Feb 11, 2022 - Bear Market - Stage 4

Looking at the Stan Weinstein indicators, we are in a Bear Market. All indicators except for the Global Dow are negative. 

COVID cases are down and hopefully life returns to normal in 2022. So what is the problem? Inflation, Ukraine/Russia tension according to this Wall Street Journal article.

Tech, led by Facebook is taken a beating. FANG stocks are not looking too good. Apple is doing fine but the others are not.   The Apple vs Facebook battle over our data is an interesting one. 

Let's look at the charts. At this point, just a minor correction. We will have to wait and see if it stays minor or gets larger.

 

Stock Market Update - January 28, 2022

 We are in a bit of a correction. The NasDaq is now in Stage 4 decline because its 30 week moving average line is now sloping downward.

 

The other major indexes are in Stage 3 and possibly heading for Stage 4.

One of my favorite Stan Weinstein indicators is to chart the difference between NYSE stocks hitting their 52 week high vs those hitting their 52 week low. He said not to use it alone but in conjunction with the other indicators. If we take a look at it now, it shows that we are in the beginning of a correction. How far it goes is hard to say, this could be a normal correction or if tensions continue with Russia, inflation doesn't budge and if there are more restrictions due to COVID which is also driving inflation, then it could continue. Hard to say. 

 

 

Stock Market Update - January 21, 2022 - Signals Down

 From my perspective, we are now entering into Stage 3 for the major indexes, all of which are now below their 30 week moving averages. At this point, the moving average line is slightly up or flat, it is not going down into Stage 4. Interestingly, the global Dow is above. Generally it lags the US markets but not this time.

 

• Broad indexes except GDOW are below their 30 week moving averages 
• DJIA vs NYSE A-D: Both Down
• Divergence: DJIA vs NYSE High/Low: Both Down
• 200 Day MA NYSE A-D: Below the line for the first time in a long time
• NYSE  52 Wk Highs-Lows Diff: -519 meaning more stocks were at their lows

Tech took the biggest hit this week.

 

Stock Market Update - January 14, 2022

 My indicators are mixed this week. Nothing too horrible, mostly minor showing of weakness in some indicators. The NASDAQ is below its 30 week moving average just a little bit, the NYSE had more lows than highs, and the NYSE/DJIA were both down.

One of my favorite charts, the Dow vs GLD, shows the Dow outperforming gold. I view this as a good sign.

Have you tried to buy a car lately? Used or new they are hard to come by. Dealer lots are empty. So empty in fact that they have used vehicles in the show room and dissuade you from buying used (where they usually make a nice profit) for fear they won't have any example of the model to show potential buyers. Wow.

What's the problem? A chip shortage. The US is looking to boost more manufacturing here.

How about groceries? Tried to buy any of those lately? Around here the veggies shelves are empty. My plan? Go to the local farmer's market. A good idea anyway. Lots of fresh veggies and not pesticides to boot!

2021 Stock Market Year End Performance

 2021 was a good year for the market! In general up 20%. Not bad. Who would have thought a pandemic would be good for the stock market?

Here's how the major indexes performed:

• S&P 26.9%
• NasDaq 21.39%
• DOW 18.73%
• GLD -6.24%
• XLE (Energy ETF) 17.54%
• TIP (Treasury Inflation Protected Bonds) 1.10%
• Bitcoin 46.65%
  

A few visuals to show the year.

S&P 

 

 

 

 

 

 

NASDAQ

DOW

BitCoin to US Dollar