2023 Stock Market Performance Wrap Up

2023 was a great year for the stock market. We finally saw some improvements after the long sideways performance of 2022. 

• S&P - up 26%
• Dow - up 13%
• NASDAG - up 53%
  

We appear to be in Stage 2 going into 2024 which is a positive sign. A review of Stage 2. This is a time to invest.

• Stage 2 - Advancing Phase
• 30 week moving average slopes up. 
• Close is above the 30 week Moving Average, with higher lows
• Fundamentals improve

Slickcharts has some fantastic charts. Here is one showing returns year over year for the S&P.

2022 Year in Review - Markets Tanked

 The year has been quite the ride! The entire year down. Here are the numbers according to this Market Watch article by William Watts.

• S&P -19.4%
• Dow -8.8%
• NASDAQ -33.1%

Pretty painful year.

I love this chart published by Jill Mislinski over at Advisor Perspectives.

Happy New Year to 2023! Let's hope it is a year we start to recover our losses.

Cheers!

Stocks Gain in Positivity - Is there hope?

 The last couple of weeks are showing some signs of hope for stocks. October had a big gain. I am hopeful we are beginning to see a turn around and then even better if we start to climb the wall of worry.

CNN's Fear and Greed Indicator is at Greed

The Finviz Heat Map for the last month is mostly green.

 

And finally, the Dow poked about its 30 week moving average line.

A cat can hope!

Stock Market Update - July 29, 2022

This week ended with a glimmer of hope as the market bounced up a little bit. From a stage analysis perspective, we are still in stage 4 because the major indexes are still below their 30 week moving average and all the other indicators are also in the red.

Notable news include:

• Fed rate increase
• Tech earnings: Apple and Alphabet strong, Amazon 2nd losing quarter
• July posted the best market rally since November 2020

 

 

If we have another couple of good weeks, we may see the major indexes above their moving average...

 

Stock Market Update - June 3, 2022

This week and the week prior, saw some stabilization on the downward trend we've been in since December 2021. All my indicators remain in the red however. We don't know if this is just a pause and we don't know which direction we will go from here. We are still in Stage 4 decline.

Looking at market sectors, the only well performing sectors for the last month are Energy, Utilities and Materials. Especially interesting is XLE which lagged the market recovery from COVID up until recently as it now outperforms the others. See this Stockcharts graph.

Stock Market Update - Stage 4 Decline Continues

 Even with the little uptick on Friday, the overall week is down and we continue to be in Stage 4 Downturn. All indicators remain in the negative.

• Stage 4 - Declining Phase
• Close line below the 30 week Moving Average (MA)
• 30 week Moving Average is sloping down

 

Inflation remains high, inventory of goods remains slow and sluggish, the Russian/Ukrainian war continues, COVID is still an issue, and CNN's Fear and Greed is at Extreme Fear.

 

 

 

Stock Market Update - April Fool's 2022

 This week saw a little bounce, but the major indexes have not broken above their 30 week moving average lines.

Wishing Wealth feels this could be a bad sign. Too many breakouts not making it.

Jill Mislinski at Advisors Perspectives is showing mixed signals with the S&P analysis signaling to be in cash, however, the longer view of the Ivy Portfolios are a mix of cash and invested.

CNN's Fear and Greed has moved up a bit. It had been in the dumps for weeks.

We shall wait and see.

Stock Market Update - March 18, 2022 - Little Bounce

We are still in Stage 4 decline, however all 3 indexes did have a nice uptrend for the week.

One indicator to keep an eye on is the Dow vs Gold. They are about to cross. If they do indeed cross, then I view that as a sign of trouble. As of the end of this week, the bad trend reverted with gold dipping down. See this stockcharts link.

The government in contemplating an end to Daylight Savings - please let it be so!

The Sunshine Protection Act has passed the Senate and is awaiting House review.

Unfortunately the war in Ukraine continues.

 

 

Stock Market Update - January 21, 2022 - Signals Down

 From my perspective, we are now entering into Stage 3 for the major indexes, all of which are now below their 30 week moving averages. At this point, the moving average line is slightly up or flat, it is not going down into Stage 4. Interestingly, the global Dow is above. Generally it lags the US markets but not this time.

 

• Broad indexes except GDOW are below their 30 week moving averages 
• DJIA vs NYSE A-D: Both Down
• Divergence: DJIA vs NYSE High/Low: Both Down
• 200 Day MA NYSE A-D: Below the line for the first time in a long time
• NYSE  52 Wk Highs-Lows Diff: -519 meaning more stocks were at their lows

Tech took the biggest hit this week.

 

Stock Market Update - December 24, 2021

 The stage indicators this week turned green. Santa Clause rallied to bring them up.

Tech via the NasDaq took a bit of a hit in the last couple of weeks, but the 30 week moving average is still sloping upward which keeps us in stage 2.

 

 

If we look at gold versus the S&P we see gold is below the S&P. I read that as a positive indicator.

Merry Christmas!

 

Market Update November 26, 2021 - Bumpy COVID Varient in Africa

Friday saw a sell off of about 2% to 2.5% amid concerns of a new COVID varient in South Africa.

Let's look at the indicators.

1. DJIA vs 30 week MA: Touching the moving average line
2. S&P  vs 30 week MA: Above
3. Nasdaq vs 30 week MA: Above
4. Global DOW vs 30 week MA: Below
5. DJIA vs NYSE A-D: Both Down
6. Divergence: DJIA vs NYSE High/Low: Both Down
7. 200 Day MA NYSE A-D: Above
8. NYSE  52 Wk Highs-Lows Diff: -182
   

 

Interesting articles for further reading:

• Greg Schnell - Ignore the News
  

• Barchart COVID Market Impact  
  

End of October 2021 - Stock Market Bounce - Are we in Stage 3?

Are we possibly approaching stage 3 on the Weinstein scale? Or, are we continuing Stage 2 after getting a bounce? The GDOW and DOW both have flat moving averages, while the S&P and NASDAQ have bounced off their MA.

• Stage 2 - Advancing Phase
• 30 week moving average slopes up. 
• Close is above the 30 week Moving Average, with higher lows
• Fundamentals improve

• Stage 3 - The Top Phase
• Loses momentum
• Choppy market
• 30 week Moving Average loses upward slope and flattens 

 

 

Let's see what happens.

Will this be a bad October?

 It looks like we are approaching a correction, with the major indexes touching their 30 week moving average lines or going just a little bit below. We are due for one, the question is whether it will be a large or little correction.

Wishing Wealth has an interesting post... feels trouble ahead as interest rates ahead.

Stock Market Update Week Ending September 17, 2021

The Stage Indicators are beginning to point to weakness in the market with the major indexes about to breach their 30 week moving average line. We are due for a pullback and may see one in the coming weeks.

The FINVIZ.com heatmap from Friday is mostly Red.

 

Drivers appear to be financially related vs. COVID. China's Evergrande may not be able to pay it's debt, talk of Fed tapering, and debt ceiling debates.

Here is a snapshot of the S&P which appears to be entering into Stage 3.

Hang tight.

Stock Market Update: July 8, 2021

 From a stage analysis viewpoint, we are in Stage 2 Accumulation (see stage analysis overview here) with the market continuing to go up.

One of the gauges I like to look at is the Dow vs NYSE Advance-Decline. (Barron's used to produce it but stopped so I make my own chart.) It's a bad sign for the market when the Dow is advancing more than the NYSE, which we see in March of 2020 when COVID hit. Likewise, it's a positive sign when the NYSE is above the Dow. That's where we are now. It's one of the biggest divergences I've seen in a while.

Stories of interest:

• 123 Year Old Mechanicville hydroelectric plant mining bitcoin
• Stock rotation - tech up top
• Stockcharts - Has the market jumped from cautious to bullish?
  

Stock Market Update: Week of November 27, 2020

 It defies logic considering how bad the economy is, but the market is spiking up. CNN's Fear and Greed indicator is the highest I've seen. Extreme greed.

All of the indicators are currently green. COVID vaccine news continues as more options came out this week. Five are in Phase 3 trials.

As of November 24, 2020, large-scale (Phase 3) clinical trials are in progress or being planned for five COVID-19 vaccines in the United States:

• AstraZeneca’s COVID-19 vaccine
• Janssen’s COVID-19 vaccine
• Moderna’s COVID-19 vaccine
• Novavax’s COVID-19 vaccine
• Pfizer’s COVID-19 vaccine​

The market seems a little frosty to me. Gold broke below it's 30 week moving average. Tread lightly.

 

Stock Market Update: November 20, 2020

The markets are remaining positive and gold is showing signs of moving into stage 3. The moving average line is still on an uptrend however the weekly end is sloping down. This week brought news of multiple COVID-19 vaccines and some hope. Both
Pfizer/BioNTech and Moderna announced positive results.

Bitcoin is seeing new highs.

Stay frosty!

Stock Market Update - October 23, 2020

Not much change in the stock market. It continues to hold steady. The Moving Average line on the global DOW is not slanting upward which is a positive sign.

With the election a couple of weeks away, Stock Chart's Three Takes on the Presidential Cycle article by David Keller is timely. Stan talks about presidential cycles in his book and I think Tom McClellan pretty much presents a similar viewpoint.

It's been awhile since we've looked at COVID-19. I am hoping the two charts below from the CDC provide some glimmer of hope. Cases are going up, but deaths are not.

 Total Cases

 

 

Total Deaths

 

Market Update: Oct 3, 2020

News that President Trump has contracted COVID-19 made headlines on Friday. He appears to be doing better as of this morning (WSJ).

It's possible the major indexes are in stage 3. Gold continues to be in Stage 2 but is showing signs of possibly moving into Stage 3 as well. Stimulus talks are in the works.

CNN's Fear & Greed went into greed last week. It's been in greed for awhile.

We will see.

 

 

 

Stock Market Update: September 25, 2020

There is a lot of uncertainty in the air. We have the upcoming election, talks of fast tracking a COVID-19 vaccine, and in general malaise and people are sick and tired of the lock down. 

The major indexes are above their 30 week moving averages however they are not looking to be in good shape as evidenced by the S&P chart below.

 

 

Gold appears to be consolidating. Its moving average line is still sloping up however which is a positive indicator.

I am in a wait and see mode at the moment and expect some turbulence with the election.