2023 Stock Market Performance Wrap Up

2023 was a great year for the stock market. We finally saw some improvements after the long sideways performance of 2022. 

• S&P - up 26%
• Dow - up 13%
• NASDAG - up 53%
  

We appear to be in Stage 2 going into 2024 which is a positive sign. A review of Stage 2. This is a time to invest.

• Stage 2 - Advancing Phase
• 30 week moving average slopes up. 
• Close is above the 30 week Moving Average, with higher lows
• Fundamentals improve

Slickcharts has some fantastic charts. Here is one showing returns year over year for the S&P.

Market Update: Above the 30 Week Moving Average Line

Stocks made a recovery this week with the major indexes moving above their 30 week moving average lines. If they can continue, then we may move into Stage 1.

CNN's Fear and Greed indicator is in Greed.

 

Let's watch to see what happens.

Stock Market Update - 1st Week in October

While Friday ended with a bit of a high note, this week's activity shows more negative than positive for the indicators. 

Case in point, let's look at the NYSE. The last 5 weeks have shown more 52 week lows than highs.

A look at the NYSE Advance Decline 200 day moving average on Stockcharts shows we crossed below the line at the end of September.

Finally, the major indexes have either crossed below their 30 week moving average or are touching the moving average line.

The indicators are now red.

Stock Market Update - September 24, 2023

 The promising look to the market in the last few months, specifically, Stage 1, appears to be heading in the opposite direction. Almost all the indicators are about to turn red.

Here is a look at a couple of charts.

Indicators 1 - 3 - 30 Week Moving Averages

All are approaching their 30 week moving average lines.

The Dow Chart

 

The S&P Chart

 

Indicator 5: NYSE A-D 200 Day MA

NYSE Advance-Decline’s 200 days moving average to see if it is above (bull) or below (bear). We could be about to go into bear territory.

 

Be wary. October is coming up and sometimes it is a rough month!

 

 

Stock Market Update - Mid-Year 2023

We've just finished the first half of 2023 and I thought it might be a good time to take a look at how the market is doing. From a stage analysis perspective, we are in Stage 2 for the S&P and NASDAQ, the Dow however is in Stage 1.

We haven't looked at the CNN Fear and Greed indicator in awhile. We are currently in Extreme Greed.

Stock Market Update - May 28, 2023

 As we await a debt ceiling compromise between democrats and republicans the market is up and down and up and down again. As I write this post, it appears a preliminary deal has been struck and is ready for a vote this coming week.

From a technical standpoint, it appears we are in Phase 2 Advancing for the NASDAQ and SPY. The DOW retreated this past week. All positive signs as it often shows a move out of safety (DOW) to more speculative stocks.

Lots of Tech stock talk this week too with NVIDIA posting fantastic earnings.

 

An interesting read on StockCharts by Mary Ellen McGonangle.
 

 

Stock Market Update - April 22, 2023 - Stage 1

 Most of the Weinstein indicators are in or moving to Stage 1. This stage can be rough, but at the moment appear to be in a multi-week stage 1. Here is a look at the DOW. The S&P and NASDAQ look similar.

Corporate earning reports are underway. 

Let's see what next week brings us.

Stock Market Update - Back in the Negative

This week the DOW moved beneath it's 30 week moving average and the SPY and NASDAQ's 30 meek moving average reversed and is pointing down. Any hopes of moving into Stage 1 is squashed as we are again in Stage 4 decline. See previous post for Stage Analysis.

In addition Indicator 5: NYSE Advance-Decline 200 day moving average is touching the moving average line as shown below in this StockChart's graph.

 

The only index still positive is the Global DOW.

Some are pointing to the Silicon Valley Bank (SVB) Collapse as the main reason for last week's market downturn. Investors are watching to see if a bailout will take care of investors with deposits above the FDIC’s $250,000 cap. 

Never a dull moment.

Stock Market Update Feb 3, 2023 - Stage 1

 From a stage analysis perspective, it appears the major indexes are entering into Stage 1 and possibly Stage 2. 

I am also seeing improvements in the number of new highs vs new lows and NYSE Advance-Decline Index.

We may be climbing the Wall of Worry. I am starting to nibble at stocks with the hope that this year we move out of the market decline and into a market uptrend.

January 13 2023 - Stock Market Update

 Markets are performing a little better so far in 2023. The stage analysis indicators are moving into positive territory with the exception of the NASDAQ which has been affected by weakness in tech and the ups and downs of Tesla via Mr. Musk.

Let's take a look at some charts. The Dow may be entering into Stage 1 as shown below with the upturn of the 30 week moving average.

For the first time in over a year, Indicator #5 is positive. For this indicator, we look to see if the NYSE Advance-Decline (A-D) is above or below its 200 day moving average. The divergence between the advances and declines is plotted on a chart, and the 200 day moving average is also plotted.

 

At this point I am watching and gently buying shares of some stock that I think may be in for an upward climb.

Stock Market Update - December 10, 2022

 Stocks are starting to look a little bit better with some of the indicators getting poised for positivity. We're not there yet but at least there is some improvement. It's been a about a year for this market's downturn.

Green represents a glimmer of hope but doesn't make the indicator positive until the moving average line slopes up.

Indicators:

1. DOW - 30 Week Moving Average Line flat, close above the line
2. S&P - 30 Week Moving Average Line flat, close above the line
3. NASDAQ - Below the line 
4. Global DOW - 30 Week Moving Average Line flat, close above the line
5. NYSE AD and DOW Convergence - Both down
6. NYSE AD 200 Day Moving Average
7. NYSE 52 Week Highs and Lows

 

 I am hopeful 2023 will be the year we turn the tide, until then let's watch the tape!

Stock Market Update: Shorts vs Buyers SDS vs. SPX

 This week the market had a few days with big swings up and then back down again. A lot of action.

One comparison I like to do is to compare the short SPY ETF to the S&P index. As we can see below the last cross over occurred in September. The SDS is above the SPY signalling we have more short action than buying action. Not a good sign.

October can be a loss harvest month with the mutual funds and it's possible that is contributing to some of the downside. All indicators remain in the red.

Another Bad Week on Wallstreet

 After a little bit of optimism, we are back to a decline in the weekly numbers. 

The Fed plans another rate hike to battle inflation with interest rates near 4% by year end.

Fedex profit warning.

We continue to be Stage 4 Decline.

Stocks Take a Tumble - Fed Chair Speech of Pain

 Just when it looked as though the market was starting to look up, with the big indexes moving above their 30 week moving average, Fed Chair Powell let it rip that we are in for more pain. Yikes!

As Mary Ellen McGonagle put's it "Fed Chair Powell's comments today that bringing down prices "is likely to require a sustained period of below-trend growth and an increase in unemployment" brought the markets to its knees."

My favorite chart is offered up by Jill Mislinski at Advisor Perspectives in this article. 

With all that, we are clearly still in Stage 4 decline. Here is a chart showing where we are on the S&P. Notice the 30 week moving average continues to slope down.

 

Stock Market Bounce - June 24, 2022

This week we had a little bounce. Interestingly though, there were still more new lows than new highs in the NYSE.

Let's compare the 2008-2009 downturn in the NasDaq to our current downturn.

 

 2008 - 2009 crash - Long Period of time - about 1 year and 4 months

Current downturn in NasDaq - about 7 months so far.

We are obviously still in Stage 4 - downturn! Let's see what develops over the next few months.

Stock Market Update - June 3, 2022

This week and the week prior, saw some stabilization on the downward trend we've been in since December 2021. All my indicators remain in the red however. We don't know if this is just a pause and we don't know which direction we will go from here. We are still in Stage 4 decline.

Looking at market sectors, the only well performing sectors for the last month are Energy, Utilities and Materials. Especially interesting is XLE which lagged the market recovery from COVID up until recently as it now outperforms the others. See this Stockcharts graph.

Stock Market Update - April Fool's 2022

 This week saw a little bounce, but the major indexes have not broken above their 30 week moving average lines.

Wishing Wealth feels this could be a bad sign. Too many breakouts not making it.

Jill Mislinski at Advisors Perspectives is showing mixed signals with the S&P analysis signaling to be in cash, however, the longer view of the Ivy Portfolios are a mix of cash and invested.

CNN's Fear and Greed has moved up a bit. It had been in the dumps for weeks.

We shall wait and see.

Stock Market Update - March 18, 2022 - Little Bounce

We are still in Stage 4 decline, however all 3 indexes did have a nice uptrend for the week.

One indicator to keep an eye on is the Dow vs Gold. They are about to cross. If they do indeed cross, then I view that as a sign of trouble. As of the end of this week, the bad trend reverted with gold dipping down. See this stockcharts link.

The government in contemplating an end to Daylight Savings - please let it be so!

The Sunshine Protection Act has passed the Senate and is awaiting House review.

Unfortunately the war in Ukraine continues.

 

 

Stock Marrket Update - Stage 4 - Stormy Weather

No doubt about it, we are in Stage 4 downtrend. All of my indicators are in the red. The last one to go red is the global DOW which is now below its 30 week moving average.

Another indicator to watch is the 10 week moving average vs the 30 week moving average. The cross has occurred with the NASDAQ taking the most heat.  

The Russian invasion of Ukraine is sadly a driver, along with inflation (gas prices anyone?), and supply chain issues. For once, COVID is not behind the bad news as most states lift their mask mandates and hopefully we return back to normal.

CNN's Fear and Greed indicator is at the lowest I've seen in a long time.

 

 

 

Stock Market Update - Feb 11, 2022 - Bear Market - Stage 4

Looking at the Stan Weinstein indicators, we are in a Bear Market. All indicators except for the Global Dow are negative. 

COVID cases are down and hopefully life returns to normal in 2022. So what is the problem? Inflation, Ukraine/Russia tension according to this Wall Street Journal article.

Tech, led by Facebook is taken a beating. FANG stocks are not looking too good. Apple is doing fine but the others are not.   The Apple vs Facebook battle over our data is an interesting one. 

Let's look at the charts. At this point, just a minor correction. We will have to wait and see if it stays minor or gets larger.