Most of the Weinstein indicators are in or moving to Stage 1. This stage can be rough, but at the moment appear to be in a multi-week stage 1. Here is a look at the DOW. The S&P and NASDAQ look similar.
Corporate earning reports are underway.
Let's see what next week brings us.
This week the DOW moved beneath it's 30 week moving average and the SPY and NASDAQ's 30 meek moving average reversed and is pointing down. Any hopes of moving into Stage 1 is squashed as we are again in Stage 4 decline. See previous post for Stage Analysis.
In addition Indicator 5: NYSE Advance-Decline 200 day moving average is touching the moving average line as shown below in this StockChart's graph.
The only index still positive is the Global DOW.
Some are pointing to the Silicon Valley Bank (SVB) Collapse as the main reason for last week's market downturn. Investors are watching to see if a bailout will take care of investors with deposits above the FDIC’s $250,000 cap.
Never a dull moment.
From a stage analysis perspective, it appears the major indexes are entering into Stage 1 and possibly Stage 2.
I am also seeing improvements in the number of new highs vs new lows and NYSE Advance-Decline Index.
Markets are performing a little better so far in 2023. The stage analysis indicators are moving into positive territory with the exception of the NASDAQ which has been affected by weakness in tech and the ups and downs of Tesla via Mr. Musk.
Let's take a look at some charts. The Dow may be entering into Stage 1 as shown below with the upturn of the 30 week moving average.
For the first time in over a year, Indicator #5 is positive. For this indicator, we look to see if the NYSE Advance-Decline (A-D) is above or below its 200 day moving average. The divergence between the advances and declines is plotted on a chart, and the 200 day moving average is also plotted.
At this point I am watching and gently buying shares of some stock that I think may be in for an upward climb.
The year has been quite the ride! The entire year down. Here are the numbers according to this Market Watch article by William Watts.
Pretty painful year.
I love this chart published by Jill Mislinski over at Advisor Perspectives.
Cheers!
Stocks are starting to look a little bit better with some of the indicators getting poised for positivity. We're not there yet but at least there is some improvement. It's been a about a year for this market's downturn.
Green represents a glimmer of hope but doesn't make the indicator positive until the moving average line slopes up.
Indicators:
The last couple of weeks are showing some signs of hope for stocks. October had a big gain. I am hopeful we are beginning to see a turn around and then even better if we start to climb the wall of worry.
CNN's Fear and Greed Indicator is at Greed
And finally, the Dow poked about its 30 week moving average line.
A cat can hope!
