Stock Market Update - December 10, 2021 - Bounce

Stocks bounced back this week with the major indexes bouncing back above their 30 week moving averages. Last week I thought we might be heading into stage 3 but not so fast!

Even Indicator 5 - NYSE Advance-Decline 200 Day Moving Average bounced up.

CNN's Fear and Greed improved slightly this week as well.

On the other hand, it would appear we are now back to wearing masks. At least in New York. Starts on Monday.

My friend J.A. provided a nice link to an article by Jill Mislinski on Advisor Perspectives, that takes moving average analysis to a macro view of 10 months vs what we use here which is 30 week. It's a good read and I plan to add it to my monthly review.

It appears we may be headed for a correction. All of the indicators are red or about to turn red.

Let's look at the indicators.

1. DJIA vs 30 week MA: Below
   
2. S&P  vs 30 week MA:Touching
3. Nasdaq vs 30 week MA:Touching
4. Global DOW vs 30 week MA: Below
5. DJIA vs NYSE A-D: Both Down
6. Divergence: DJIA vs NYSE High/Low: Both Down
7. 200 Day MA NYSE A-D:Touching
8. NYSE  52 Wk Highs-Lows Diff: -182
   

 

Market Update November 26, 2021 - Bumpy COVID Varient in Africa

Friday saw a sell off of about 2% to 2.5% amid concerns of a new COVID varient in South Africa.

Let's look at the indicators.

1. DJIA vs 30 week MA: Touching the moving average line
2. S&P  vs 30 week MA: Above
3. Nasdaq vs 30 week MA: Above
4. Global DOW vs 30 week MA: Below
5. DJIA vs NYSE A-D: Both Down
6. Divergence: DJIA vs NYSE High/Low: Both Down
7. 200 Day MA NYSE A-D: Above
8. NYSE  52 Wk Highs-Lows Diff: -182
   

 

Interesting articles for further reading:

• Greg Schnell - Ignore the News
  

• Barchart COVID Market Impact  
  

Stock Market Update: November 21, 2021

Markets have taken a bit of a bounce as we continue in Stage 3. The moving average line is sloping up.

It will be nice if things can get back to boring wouldn't it? This week we are seeing countries impose lock downs as COVID cases go up in Europe.

Stockcharts' Joe Duarte has an article on Fed rates and Covid and where are we in the market?

End of October 2021 - Stock Market Bounce - Are we in Stage 3?

Are we possibly approaching stage 3 on the Weinstein scale? Or, are we continuing Stage 2 after getting a bounce? The GDOW and DOW both have flat moving averages, while the S&P and NASDAQ have bounced off their MA.

• Stage 2 - Advancing Phase
• 30 week moving average slopes up. 
• Close is above the 30 week Moving Average, with higher lows
• Fundamentals improve

• Stage 3 - The Top Phase
• Loses momentum
• Choppy market
• 30 week Moving Average loses upward slope and flattens 

 

 

Let's see what happens.

Will this be a bad October?

 It looks like we are approaching a correction, with the major indexes touching their 30 week moving average lines or going just a little bit below. We are due for one, the question is whether it will be a large or little correction.

Wishing Wealth has an interesting post... feels trouble ahead as interest rates ahead.

Stock Market Update Week Ending September 17, 2021

The Stage Indicators are beginning to point to weakness in the market with the major indexes about to breach their 30 week moving average line. We are due for a pullback and may see one in the coming weeks.

The FINVIZ.com heatmap from Friday is mostly Red.

 

Drivers appear to be financially related vs. COVID. China's Evergrande may not be able to pay it's debt, talk of Fed tapering, and debt ceiling debates.

Here is a snapshot of the S&P which appears to be entering into Stage 3.

Hang tight.