Stock Market Update as of July 24, 2020 - COVID Continues, Gold Rises, Dollar Falls

I keep thinking gold has hit a top, it must be, but then as things continue on, it appears it may still be in stage 2. The dollar is falling, COVID flareups and the ramifications for people and businesses continues, however, the overall market indexes are all still above their 30 week moving averages. What is a cat to think?

I bought some of the Gold ETF in 2017 as a hedge. Didn't think too much of it and let it sit there as a rainy day investment. The question for me now is do I buy more or wait it out? In reviewing the chart, it looks like there is room for more advancement before GLD enters into stage 3. A stop loss is in order at $160. Note the resistance to move past is the $179 high in 2011. This week can be key to see if it can plow through that resistance line.

A ChartMill chart below, confirms gold is in stage 3. (ChartMill has Weinstein indicators).

 

And then Greg Schnell posted an article comparing copper and gold to the dollar.

Stock Market Update: July 17, 2020 - Let's Look at Gold

Stocks are doing well from a Stage Analysis view, with the DOW joining the other major indexes when it finally move above its 30 week moving average. Let's see if it sticks.

Gold has been getting a lot of attention lately as it reaches highs lately and the US government printing money like crazy. See this interesting Barron's Article.

I thought it would be interesting to compare gold to the DOW and S&P. If the recent crossover is any indication and works like it did in the 2009 downturn, gold may continue to move upwards. The orange line in each chart represents GLD (ETF).

How about technology? It also is on an upward trend. Martin Pring has a great blog post on it. The next coming week's will help us see if the trend will continue or reverse.

Stock Market Update: July 11, 2020

The market continues to prove itself fairly resilient. Some say it is related to the fed policy. Technology has benefited from the work from home and stay at home mandates in reaction to the COVID pandemic. 

If the SDS ETF which is a hyper short vehicle is any indication, the markets are okay for now.  In the 2009 crisis, shorts were an indicator of how the market was doing. 

Here is a snapshot of how many COVID cases the US has as of this week.

and a comparison to the flu season:

We are living in interesting times indeed.

Stock Market Update: June 28, 2020

Market indicators are mixed. The recent upturn appears to be on shaky ground with Nassim Taleb calling for hedging a long tail. 

With that in mind, let's see where gold is from a stage perspective using the GLD ETF via stockcharts.

The moving average is sloping up, the close is above the 30 week moving average and fundamentals for gold are improving if you consider that it is widely viewed as a hedge for the market. The chart below shows the peak of gold during the 2009 market downturn was around $180. Current prices is $162. If we consider 180 to be the ceiling then we may have room for higher prices.

How about looking at the tech sector? The NasDaq continues to be in a stage 2 accumulation phase.

Overall, the market is choppy however, and that indicates we are still in phase 4 overall. The DOW and S&P are not in stage 2 but are still in stage 4.
 

Stock Market Update: Week Ending June 5, 2020

Big rebound in markets this week with an upbeat jobs report.

From a stage analysis perspective, we have the following:

• DOW & S&P : Stage 4. The 30 week moving average is still sloping down or is flat.
• NASDAQ: Stage 1: Closing price above the 30 week moving average and the moving average is sloping upward

 The CNN Fear and Greed index is showing a little bit of improvement the first time a long time.

Many areas in the US are re-opening in phases and fingers crossed, we can re-open without a resurgence in cases. We all need to get out of the house!!  
 

Stock Market Update: End of May 2020

Well we're at the end of May and it's been a ride! Markets rebounded and there is hope, at least here in New York, that we can start to re-open. NY has a 4 phase approach. Note, all have extensive rules, see the official page for more information.

• Phase 1: 
• Construction 
• Agriculture, Forestry, Fishing and Hunting 
• Retail - (Limited to curbside or in-store pickup or drop off)
• Manufacturing 
• Wholesale Trade 
• Phase 2:
• Offices 
• Real Estate
• Essential and Phase 2 in-store retail
• Vehicle sales, lease, rentals
• Retail rental, repair and cleaning
• Commercial building management
• Hair salons and barbershops (Yay)
• NOT OPEN:
  
  • Malls
  • Dine-in and on-premise restaurant or bar service, excluding take-out or delivery for off-premise consumption;
  • Large gathering/event venues
  • Gyms, fitness centers, and exercise classes,
  • Video lottery and casino gaming facilities;
  • Movie theaters, except drive-ins; and
  • Places of public amusement
• Phase 3:
• The guidelines below apply to non-essential businesses in regions that are permitted to reopen, essential businesses throughout the state that were previously permitted to remain open, and commercial and recreational activities that have been permitted to operate statewide with restrictions
• NOT OPEN: Restaurants and dine-in
• Phase 4:
  •  NOT OPEN:
    
    • Arts / Entertainment / Recreation
    • Education
     
  Holy Cow! Can it get any more confusing??

The stock market on the other hand is more direct. Markets appear to be making a recovery with the major indexes either above their 30 week moving average or about to break through and above it.

Stock Market Update: Week Ending May 22, 2020

Markets are mixed. There are signs of hope as states start to reopen. The Wall Street Journal has a nice map.

 

Many are limiting gatherings to 10 people or less. It would be nice to see a little more flexibility in some of the restrictions. If a wine store can be an 'essential' business and allow foot traffic, then you would think some additional retail stores could also be open with managed foot traffic. We want our small businesses to stay open and functioning, they are the backbone of our towns.

The race to develop a vaccine continues.

The NASDAG continues to be in a Stage 1 uptrend, while the S&P and DOW remain in Stage 4 decline. GLD appears to be strongly in Phase 2.