COVID news of late has been more positive with hospitalization rates going down and the vaccine being administered. I have hopes of a recovery in late 2021  and into 2022.  The Atlantic has a great story about the importance of fresh air in treating airborne illnesses and how in the early part of COVID we forgot or discounted some of the measures learned during the 1918 pandemic.  See "We're Just Rediscovering a 19th Century Pandemic Strategy".

If you've ever worked in a modern office building you will appreciate the story. They are often stuffy with little air circulation and the windows don't open. I hate them. Add to that nobody can agree on the proper temperature. Often the ventilation systems are inadequate or under powered to save money.

The Market is still doing well from a stage analysis at this time. Gold appears to be entering in to stage 4.  My bets are on energy, travel stocks, and other areas that will benefit from some sort of 'back to normalcy'.

 

Bitcoin has been making news over the last couple of weeks. A large surge was seen after Elon Musk announced Tesla plans to accept bitcoin. Tesla bought $1.5 billion bitcoin.

 

Then there was the introduction of a new Bitcoin ETF, Purpose BTCC.

 This week also brought an unusual winter storm URI to Texas. Texas is now examining the problems that brought power issues, such as rolling blackouts and lack of water. 

 

It's time to look at energy by viewing the XLE chart. I think it is in Stage 1. The moving average line is starting to slope upward. I expect that when we recover from COVID, energy prices will rebound from the big plunge they took last year.

 

 

 For more reading on energy, I recommend these articles on Stockcharts:

• The Nightmare of Capital Efficiency
• Is Oil Just Getting Started
  

 

 

Stock Market Update: February 5, 2021

 Gamestop mania looks like it has come to an end. It was an interesting ride!

Gold appears to be in stage 3 to me as its 30 week moving average is flattening and price is moving under the moving average.

 

 

Some interesting stocks to keep an eye on as they look like early stage 2:

• XLE - I think this has room to grow as the economy improves.
• VIVO - Meridian  Diagnostic equipment
  
• VREX - Varex Imaging designs x-ray machinery
  
• TRIP - Trip Advisor - I think this has room to run once the economy recovers
  

 

Stock Market Update - January 31, 2021

 Looks like we are finally getting a bit of a correction.

There has been lots of turbulence and excitement over the last couple of weeks related to GameStop and the Robinhood app. (New York Times article) 

Individual investors are still alive and kicking, and reading on reddit apparently. (CNN business article)

Meanwhile, back to stage analysis... while we had the first downturn in a while, the indicators are still green. A pullback will be welcome and logical.

 

 

 

2020 End of Year Review

 Here is a quick breakdown of how 2020 fared for stocks.

• Dow 9.7%
• S&P 17.63%
• NASDAQ 45%
• GLD 23%
  
• TIP 10%
  
• SDS (Ultra short S&P) -48%

Not a good year for the DOW in comparison to the other indexes. Great year otherwise.

Stock Market Update: December 25, 2020

 The market continues to go full steam ahead. All indicators are green.

Cryptocurrencies are also doing well. Bitcoin stockcharts link.

Appears to be in stage 2 or stage 3.

 

COVID vaccines are being distributed worldwide and the hopes are that we can start to get back to normal in the spring.

 

Stock Market Update - Week Ending 12/11/20

 There has been some changes in the market as we get news that the FDA approved emergency use of the COVID-19 vaccine. "While not an FDA approval, today’s emergency use authorization of the Pfizer-BioNTech COVID-19 Vaccine holds the promise to alter the course of this pandemic in the United States,” said Peter Marks, M.D., Ph.D., Director of the FDA’s Center for Biologics Evaluation and Research.

With anticipation that the other vaccines will also get approved, and preparation for distribution of the Pfizer-BioNTech vaccine, there is some hope on the horizon. 

Now may be the time to trim gold if you have it. With the good news on COVID and the Gold ETF moving below it's 30 week moving average line, gold may be moving into Stage3. The moving average line itself is starting to flatten out. We will see.