Stock Market Update: Week Ending November 6, 2020

 The stock market had a nice bounce this week while we wait for the results of the Presidential Election. It's pretty close. According to The Associated Press, as of this morning, it Biden has a small lead over Trump. If it plays out anything like the Bush vs. Gore election, we may have to wait until December to know who wins.

In 2000, the markets were already on a downturn prior to the election so I would be careful in making any predictions on the impact of this one on the market. Plus, we have the whole COVID pandemic to deal with and there is no comparison to that in 2000.

From a stage analysis, we are still in Stage 3.

Stock Market Update - October 23, 2020

Not much change in the stock market. It continues to hold steady. The Moving Average line on the global DOW is not slanting upward which is a positive sign.

With the election a couple of weeks away, Stock Chart's Three Takes on the Presidential Cycle article by David Keller is timely. Stan talks about presidential cycles in his book and I think Tom McClellan pretty much presents a similar viewpoint.

It's been awhile since we've looked at COVID-19. I am hoping the two charts below from the CDC provide some glimmer of hope. Cases are going up, but deaths are not.

 Total Cases

 

 

Total Deaths

 

Market Update: Oct 3, 2020

News that President Trump has contracted COVID-19 made headlines on Friday. He appears to be doing better as of this morning (WSJ).

It's possible the major indexes are in stage 3. Gold continues to be in Stage 2 but is showing signs of possibly moving into Stage 3 as well. Stimulus talks are in the works.

CNN's Fear & Greed went into greed last week. It's been in greed for awhile.

We will see.

 

 

 

Stock Market Update: September 25, 2020

There is a lot of uncertainty in the air. We have the upcoming election, talks of fast tracking a COVID-19 vaccine, and in general malaise and people are sick and tired of the lock down. 

The major indexes are above their 30 week moving averages however they are not looking to be in good shape as evidenced by the S&P chart below.

 

 

Gold appears to be consolidating. Its moving average line is still sloping up however which is a positive indicator.

I am in a wait and see mode at the moment and expect some turbulence with the election.

Stock Market Update: September 11, 2020

This week saw a little pull back however from a long view of weekly and monthly charts, the major indexes are still above their 30 week moving averages. Gold continues to be above it's moving average as well, but could be entering into Stage 3. 

The DOW shuffled the companies. Out are ExxonMobile, Raytheon and Pfiezer. In are Salesforce, Amgen and Honeywell. Also impacting the DOW is the Apple 4 for 1 stock split.

Holding steady for now.

 

Stock Market Update: End of August 2020

 The market continues to move up. CNN's Fear and Greed indicator is reading greed.

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

I find this chart I came up with to be interesting. The Gold ETF, GLD, compared to the DOW price action. If you notice, gold went up prior to the big market decline in 2009.  I circled the cross overs however you can see the price action diverged between the two when there was a change in the market. At the moment both are on an uptrend. In my opinion, if a COVID-19 vaccine comes out, then gold will probably drop, at least temporarily. It could continue to hold steady though as governments around the world print money and the dollar keeps losing value.

Stock Market Update Week Ending Aug 21, 2020 - NYSE vs Dow Trend Chart

The market remains mixed as posted last week.

This week I want to look at a chart from Stan's book that used to be available on the Barron's site but they have since retired it so I make my own. It is the Dow vs. the NYSE Advance-Decline ratio.  We are looking for changes in trend. If both the Dow and NYSE A-D are going in the same direction or are they diverging?

In January they diverted and it turned out to be a signal of the drop. This week we see a potential divergence. What is important to note is that defensive stocks are in favor when the Dow moves up but the NYSE A-D moves down. We need to see if this continues as one week does not make a trend. 

This indicator should not be used on its own.

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Stockcharts S&P shows the S&P began decline in February.