This week continues in the sideways action we've seen for the last couple of months. Most likely this will continue through the election. Tom McClellan who publishes the McClellan Report has a nice article about the impact elections have on the market. Regardless of which candidate wins, we will most likely have some turbulence because we will not have an incumbent for president. You can read the article here.
The Stock Trader's Almanac written by Yale Hirsch's son also has an article 8th Year Cycle in Play.
Option's Alpha has a cool infographic showing that in general the market goes up after an election, however on the year where a new president must be elected (as we have this year) it tends to have negative returns.
Source Option's Alpha Blog Post - click here.
StockCharts Blogger Arthur Hill has a nice article out this week. He is calling the market action as a correction within an uptrend. Click here to read the blog post where he analyzes the broad market ETF's.
The last two weeks have shown some weakness developing in the NYSE Highs/Lows Differential and the NYSE Advance/Decline ratio. The major indexes appear to be heading towards their 30 week moving averages but have not broke through yet. All of the leads me to signal the caution sign.
We had a bit of a reversal this week with the Fed announcing interest rates will stay the same for now with the usual indication they may raise rates in the future. There is no place to put your money for a decent return, and as a result, the market responded favorably.
Barron's data (click here) is showing a return to more highs than lows.
The market is showing some signs of weakness. The major indexes average close lines are moving down towards the 30 week moving average. We barely had more new highs, than new lows this week. The Dow increased while the NYSE Advance-Decline decreased. All of this points to some caution in the weeks ahead.
There are some indications in the major indexes that we could be headed for a correction. The Dow, S&P, NASDAQ and GDOW are all approaching their 30 week moving average lines. They could bounce back this week, but we should remain cautious. Remember to have protective stop losses on any current investments. I won't be surprised if some of my more recent investments get stopped out this week.
