Stock Market Update: September 11, 2020

This week saw a little pull back however from a long view of weekly and monthly charts, the major indexes are still above their 30 week moving averages. Gold continues to be above it's moving average as well, but could be entering into Stage 3. 

The DOW shuffled the companies. Out are ExxonMobile, Raytheon and Pfiezer. In are Salesforce, Amgen and Honeywell. Also impacting the DOW is the Apple 4 for 1 stock split.

Holding steady for now.

 

Stock Market Update: End of August 2020

 The market continues to move up. CNN's Fear and Greed indicator is reading greed.

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

I find this chart I came up with to be interesting. The Gold ETF, GLD, compared to the DOW price action. If you notice, gold went up prior to the big market decline in 2009.  I circled the cross overs however you can see the price action diverged between the two when there was a change in the market. At the moment both are on an uptrend. In my opinion, if a COVID-19 vaccine comes out, then gold will probably drop, at least temporarily. It could continue to hold steady though as governments around the world print money and the dollar keeps losing value.

Stock Market Update: July 11, 2020

The market continues to prove itself fairly resilient. Some say it is related to the fed policy. Technology has benefited from the work from home and stay at home mandates in reaction to the COVID pandemic. 

If the SDS ETF which is a hyper short vehicle is any indication, the markets are okay for now.  In the 2009 crisis, shorts were an indicator of how the market was doing. 

Here is a snapshot of how many COVID cases the US has as of this week.

and a comparison to the flu season:

We are living in interesting times indeed.

Stock Market Update: June 28, 2020

Market indicators are mixed. The recent upturn appears to be on shaky ground with Nassim Taleb calling for hedging a long tail. 

With that in mind, let's see where gold is from a stage perspective using the GLD ETF via stockcharts.

The moving average is sloping up, the close is above the 30 week moving average and fundamentals for gold are improving if you consider that it is widely viewed as a hedge for the market. The chart below shows the peak of gold during the 2009 market downturn was around $180. Current prices is $162. If we consider 180 to be the ceiling then we may have room for higher prices.

How about looking at the tech sector? The NasDaq continues to be in a stage 2 accumulation phase.

Overall, the market is choppy however, and that indicates we are still in phase 4 overall. The DOW and S&P are not in stage 2 but are still in stage 4.
 

Stock Market Update: End of May 2020

Well we're at the end of May and it's been a ride! Markets rebounded and there is hope, at least here in New York, that we can start to re-open. NY has a 4 phase approach. Note, all have extensive rules, see the official page for more information.

• Phase 1: 
• Construction 
• Agriculture, Forestry, Fishing and Hunting 
• Retail - (Limited to curbside or in-store pickup or drop off)
• Manufacturing 
• Wholesale Trade 
• Phase 2:
• Offices 
• Real Estate
• Essential and Phase 2 in-store retail
• Vehicle sales, lease, rentals
• Retail rental, repair and cleaning
• Commercial building management
• Hair salons and barbershops (Yay)
• NOT OPEN:
  
  • Malls
  • Dine-in and on-premise restaurant or bar service, excluding take-out or delivery for off-premise consumption;
  • Large gathering/event venues
  • Gyms, fitness centers, and exercise classes,
  • Video lottery and casino gaming facilities;
  • Movie theaters, except drive-ins; and
  • Places of public amusement
• Phase 3:
• The guidelines below apply to non-essential businesses in regions that are permitted to reopen, essential businesses throughout the state that were previously permitted to remain open, and commercial and recreational activities that have been permitted to operate statewide with restrictions
• NOT OPEN: Restaurants and dine-in
• Phase 4:
  •  NOT OPEN:
    
    • Arts / Entertainment / Recreation
    • Education
     
  Holy Cow! Can it get any more confusing??

The stock market on the other hand is more direct. Markets appear to be making a recovery with the major indexes either above their 30 week moving average or about to break through and above it.

Stock Market Update: Week Ending May 22, 2020

Markets are mixed. There are signs of hope as states start to reopen. The Wall Street Journal has a nice map.

 

Many are limiting gatherings to 10 people or less. It would be nice to see a little more flexibility in some of the restrictions. If a wine store can be an 'essential' business and allow foot traffic, then you would think some additional retail stores could also be open with managed foot traffic. We want our small businesses to stay open and functioning, they are the backbone of our towns.

The race to develop a vaccine continues.

The NASDAG continues to be in a Stage 1 uptrend, while the S&P and DOW remain in Stage 4 decline. GLD appears to be strongly in Phase 2.

 

 

Stock Market Update - Week Ending May 15, 2020

From a stage analysis perspective, the market continues to be in Stage 4.
The NASDAQ continues to be in a stage 1, but the other indexes are in stage 4.



The CDC map for the week

Stay at home orders map from Business Insider.

Stock Market Update: End of April 2020

The market is on a wild ride, swinging from positivity to negativity with wide ranges. The DOW and S&P are in stage 4, the NASDAQ is in a possible stage 1.

COVID-19 continues to dominate the world. States in the US are beginning to plan re-opening business. Here is this week's COVID map. Note the new color purple used to designate cases above 28,764. 

Caution with stocks is recommended as we still in a stage 4 and the candlesticks in the charts above show wild swings in stock price movements. 

Stock Market Update: Week Ending April 24th

Markets rebounded a little this week. Of the 3 major indexes, the NASDAQ is the only one above, just slightly, the 30 week moving average line. States are looking to begin reopening. New York is hoping to reopen with precautions on May 15th. New York city has been especially hard hit by the pandemic, and is looking to reopen by June 1st.

This week's map from the CDC remains colorful.

How will the workforce look after the COVID virus? Will this finally be the death of the open office? Will telecommuting aka working-from-home become more acceptable? Lot's of speculation out there. Check out this Market Watch article. 

 

Stock Market Update: Week of April 16, 2020

Markets rebounded  little bit this week. The NASDAQ tip-toed above it's 30 week moving average, while the others are still beneath their MA line.

CNN's Fear & Greed Index is moving from it's position on the far left towards the center. Another hopeful sign.

COVID continues to spread across the US but some states are starting to recover too.

Many are looking forward to re-opening the country. Optimistically in May.

Stock Market Update: Week Ending April 11th and COVID Update

The market was up this week as it reacts to hope from government action to help people who are impacted by the virus financially. 


The virus continues to spread. Here is this week's CDC Map. More states are being impacted.

There have been some hopeful developments, including a test to detect antibodies and requests for people who have recovered to donate blood.

Gilead's drug to fight the virus may start testing next week.  (GILD)

This week ended with a bit of surge in the market. 

However, we are still in a stage 4 with the indexes below their 30 week moving average.

Working from home? How's your back? Movement is important. Some helpful tips:

• Anterior Pelvic Tilt - Dr. Body Gadget
• Excerise Video to treat pelvic tilt by HASfit.

Hoping we reach the peak soon and can start to return to normal.
 

Stock Market Update: April 3 2020

Coronavirus aka COVID-19 continues to dominate the headlines and people's state and mind.

The only sector with even a slight hint of positive signal is Consumer Staples. See Fidelity's chart below.

Some interesting looking stocks within that group are KMB, PG, WDFC and of course CLX. Note, the only one of those above it's 30 week moving average line is Clorox. Walmart (WMT) is also looking good.


This is a stage 4 market, and per Stan, you don't invest in a stage 4 market. Go at your own risk.

Stock Market Update - Week Ending March 27 2020 - COVID 19 update

Here in the US, this week has been bumpy. The government passed a 2$ Trillion dollar stimulus bill on Friday. The economy is taking a big hit with the lockdown of non-essential businesses in many states in an attempt to flatten the infection rate curve. The idea is to slow down the rate of infection to make sure hospitals don't get overwhelmed with cases all at once. Supplies and equipment needed, such as ventilators, must be available to help people with severe impact to their lungs.

The CDC infection rate map is below.

Hopefully, a vaccine will be found, or at least a better treatment for those who get infected.

Remember we are clearly in Stage 4.

Stage 1 - Basing Phase

30 week moving average loses its downward slope and starts to improve

Stage 2 - Advancing Phase

30 week moving average slopes up.

Close is above the 30 week moving average, with higher lows

Fundamentals improve

Stage 3 - The Top Phase

Loses momentum

Choppy market

30 week moving average loses upward slope and flattens

Stage 4 - Declining Phase

Close line below Moving average

30 week moving average is sloping down

Be safe.

Stock Market Update: Stage 4 and COVID-19

The market had a wild ride this week with the COVID-19 pandemic hitting the US more broadly. States are responding with heavy measures that impact people and businesses hard. We are officially in a Stage 4 market.

The CDC map of the COVID-19 status in the US show widespread movement of the virus.

Aside from the market reaction, COVID-19 is impacting people and will hopefully abate soon.

Stock Market Update - COVID 19

News this week continues to be on the Coronavirus-2019.

The US impact as of this week is shown below in this chart from the CDC.

Not surprisingly, the CNN Fear and Greed index is set to Extreme Fear.

The S&P is showing Stage 4 signs.

Develop a watch list and know that the broad market will impact all stocks.

Recommendations for the virus are pretty much the same as for the flu. CDC recommendations and hand-washing. Hand sanitizers are for when you don't have access to soap and water.

Stock Market Update: December 6, 2019

The market continues to ebb higher. CNN's Fear & Greed is at Greed.

Indexes are also doing well. Here's a look at the S&P over at Stock Charts. 
So far a big change from last December.

 

November 22 2019 - Stock Market View

The market is still on a high. All indicators are doing well.

Brokerage firms continue the race to the bottom with the elimination of fees for personal investors, driving more consolidation. Charles Schwab is set to buy TD Ameritrade who bought out Scottrade within the last few years.

CNN's Fear and Greed is in the Greed at 69.

Stock Market Update: Geopolitical Fears and Fed Rates

The market edged lower this week amid news of a possible Fed interest rate lowering and a stirring up of geopolitical tension.

A look at our indicators shows all are still above their markers. The Dow might be in stage 1. Keep an eye on events.

Of interest is the hype over cannabis stocks. Good idea or bad idea? Here are some articles of interest:

• Motley Fool 3 stocks worth considering
• Motley Fool - extraction companies may be a better play
• The Disciplined Investor - podcast with CLS Holdings
• Meb Faber - article of  The Cannabis Theme

Note with hype, it can go both ways Up and Down!

Market Update: Trade Truce

The market appears to be in stage 1. Over the weekend, China and the US called a trade truce. 

Bitcoin made a big rebound in May and is not back up over 11,000 after a big swing to 13,000 and another big drop. Facebook wants in on the game and has announced it will offer its own cyrptocurrency, Libra. What could go wrong?





 

Stock Market Update: End of May 2019

The market indicators are moving towards the negative, some are still just above the green line like the S&P and NASDAQ moving averages. It looks like we may be in for another downturn.

Wishing Wealth is pointing out the downturn trending. 

Trade wars which were mainly aimed at China are now also pointing at Mexico. 

CNN's Fear & Greed is firmly in fear.