Stock Market Update - January 28, 2022

 We are in a bit of a correction. The NasDaq is now in Stage 4 decline because its 30 week moving average line is now sloping downward.

 

The other major indexes are in Stage 3 and possibly heading for Stage 4.

One of my favorite Stan Weinstein indicators is to chart the difference between NYSE stocks hitting their 52 week high vs those hitting their 52 week low. He said not to use it alone but in conjunction with the other indicators. If we take a look at it now, it shows that we are in the beginning of a correction. How far it goes is hard to say, this could be a normal correction or if tensions continue with Russia, inflation doesn't budge and if there are more restrictions due to COVID which is also driving inflation, then it could continue. Hard to say. 

 

 

Stock Market Update - January 21, 2022 - Signals Down

 From my perspective, we are now entering into Stage 3 for the major indexes, all of which are now below their 30 week moving averages. At this point, the moving average line is slightly up or flat, it is not going down into Stage 4. Interestingly, the global Dow is above. Generally it lags the US markets but not this time.

 

• Broad indexes except GDOW are below their 30 week moving averages 
• DJIA vs NYSE A-D: Both Down
• Divergence: DJIA vs NYSE High/Low: Both Down
• 200 Day MA NYSE A-D: Below the line for the first time in a long time
• NYSE  52 Wk Highs-Lows Diff: -519 meaning more stocks were at their lows

Tech took the biggest hit this week.

 

Stock Market Update - December 24, 2021

 The stage indicators this week turned green. Santa Clause rallied to bring them up.

Tech via the NasDaq took a bit of a hit in the last couple of weeks, but the 30 week moving average is still sloping upward which keeps us in stage 2.

 

 

If we look at gold versus the S&P we see gold is below the S&P. I read that as a positive indicator.

Merry Christmas!

 

Stock Market Update - December 10, 2021 - Bounce

Stocks bounced back this week with the major indexes bouncing back above their 30 week moving averages. Last week I thought we might be heading into stage 3 but not so fast!

Even Indicator 5 - NYSE Advance-Decline 200 Day Moving Average bounced up.

CNN's Fear and Greed improved slightly this week as well.

On the other hand, it would appear we are now back to wearing masks. At least in New York. Starts on Monday.

My friend J.A. provided a nice link to an article by Jill Mislinski on Advisor Perspectives, that takes moving average analysis to a macro view of 10 months vs what we use here which is 30 week. It's a good read and I plan to add it to my monthly review.

End of October 2021 - Stock Market Bounce - Are we in Stage 3?

Are we possibly approaching stage 3 on the Weinstein scale? Or, are we continuing Stage 2 after getting a bounce? The GDOW and DOW both have flat moving averages, while the S&P and NASDAQ have bounced off their MA.

• Stage 2 - Advancing Phase
• 30 week moving average slopes up. 
• Close is above the 30 week Moving Average, with higher lows
• Fundamentals improve

• Stage 3 - The Top Phase
• Loses momentum
• Choppy market
• 30 week Moving Average loses upward slope and flattens 

 

 

Let's see what happens.

Stock Market Update Week Ending September 17, 2021

The Stage Indicators are beginning to point to weakness in the market with the major indexes about to breach their 30 week moving average line. We are due for a pullback and may see one in the coming weeks.

The FINVIZ.com heatmap from Friday is mostly Red.

 

Drivers appear to be financially related vs. COVID. China's Evergrande may not be able to pay it's debt, talk of Fed tapering, and debt ceiling debates.

Here is a snapshot of the S&P which appears to be entering into Stage 3.

Hang tight.

Stock Market Update: June 18, 2021 - Signs of Inflation

 For the first time in a while, markets were down at the end of the week. The worst since February. 

 Contributing factors include expected rate hikes by the Fed.

From a stage analysis view, we are still flying high, but and this is a big but, the 3 major indexes look poised to go below their 30 week moving averages. If this happens we may be entering stage 4.

CNN's Fear and Greed indicator is the lowest it has been in quite some time.

Housing continues to be out of control! Prices are skyrocketing. COVID cases are way down in the USA and there is hope for the future.

Stock Market Update - March 26, 2021

March is turning out to be a good month for investments and at this time all indicators are up.

Bitcoin continues to reach all time highs. Fidelity is considering launching a bitcoin ETF.

Gold is officially in stage 4.

COVID vaccinations are underway and the one does J&J shot is finally being delivered and administered.