COVID news of late has been more positive with hospitalization rates going down and the vaccine being administered. I have hopes of a recovery in late 2021  and into 2022.  The Atlantic has a great story about the importance of fresh air in treating airborne illnesses and how in the early part of COVID we forgot or discounted some of the measures learned during the 1918 pandemic.  See "We're Just Rediscovering a 19th Century Pandemic Strategy".

If you've ever worked in a modern office building you will appreciate the story. They are often stuffy with little air circulation and the windows don't open. I hate them. Add to that nobody can agree on the proper temperature. Often the ventilation systems are inadequate or under powered to save money.

The Market is still doing well from a stage analysis at this time. Gold appears to be entering in to stage 4.  My bets are on energy, travel stocks, and other areas that will benefit from some sort of 'back to normalcy'.

 

Stock Market Update: February 5, 2021

 Gamestop mania looks like it has come to an end. It was an interesting ride!

Gold appears to be in stage 3 to me as its 30 week moving average is flattening and price is moving under the moving average.

 

 

Some interesting stocks to keep an eye on as they look like early stage 2:

• XLE - I think this has room to grow as the economy improves.
• VIVO - Meridian  Diagnostic equipment
  
• VREX - Varex Imaging designs x-ray machinery
  
• TRIP - Trip Advisor - I think this has room to run once the economy recovers
  

 

Stock Market Update - Week Ending 12/11/20

 There has been some changes in the market as we get news that the FDA approved emergency use of the COVID-19 vaccine. "While not an FDA approval, today’s emergency use authorization of the Pfizer-BioNTech COVID-19 Vaccine holds the promise to alter the course of this pandemic in the United States,” said Peter Marks, M.D., Ph.D., Director of the FDA’s Center for Biologics Evaluation and Research.

With anticipation that the other vaccines will also get approved, and preparation for distribution of the Pfizer-BioNTech vaccine, there is some hope on the horizon. 

Now may be the time to trim gold if you have it. With the good news on COVID and the Gold ETF moving below it's 30 week moving average line, gold may be moving into Stage3. The moving average line itself is starting to flatten out. We will see.

 

 

 

Stock Market Update: November 20, 2020

The markets are remaining positive and gold is showing signs of moving into stage 3. The moving average line is still on an uptrend however the weekly end is sloping down. This week brought news of multiple COVID-19 vaccines and some hope. Both
Pfizer/BioNTech and Moderna announced positive results.

Bitcoin is seeing new highs.

Stay frosty!

Stock Market Update: Week Ending November 6, 2020

 The stock market had a nice bounce this week while we wait for the results of the Presidential Election. It's pretty close. According to The Associated Press, as of this morning, it Biden has a small lead over Trump. If it plays out anything like the Bush vs. Gore election, we may have to wait until December to know who wins.

In 2000, the markets were already on a downturn prior to the election so I would be careful in making any predictions on the impact of this one on the market. Plus, we have the whole COVID pandemic to deal with and there is no comparison to that in 2000.

From a stage analysis, we are still in Stage 3.

Stock Market Update: June 28, 2020

Market indicators are mixed. The recent upturn appears to be on shaky ground with Nassim Taleb calling for hedging a long tail. 

With that in mind, let's see where gold is from a stage perspective using the GLD ETF via stockcharts.

The moving average is sloping up, the close is above the 30 week moving average and fundamentals for gold are improving if you consider that it is widely viewed as a hedge for the market. The chart below shows the peak of gold during the 2009 market downturn was around $180. Current prices is $162. If we consider 180 to be the ceiling then we may have room for higher prices.

How about looking at the tech sector? The NasDaq continues to be in a stage 2 accumulation phase.

Overall, the market is choppy however, and that indicates we are still in phase 4 overall. The DOW and S&P are not in stage 2 but are still in stage 4.
 

Stock Market Update: Week Ending May 22, 2020

Markets are mixed. There are signs of hope as states start to reopen. The Wall Street Journal has a nice map.

 

Many are limiting gatherings to 10 people or less. It would be nice to see a little more flexibility in some of the restrictions. If a wine store can be an 'essential' business and allow foot traffic, then you would think some additional retail stores could also be open with managed foot traffic. We want our small businesses to stay open and functioning, they are the backbone of our towns.

The race to develop a vaccine continues.

The NASDAG continues to be in a Stage 1 uptrend, while the S&P and DOW remain in Stage 4 decline. GLD appears to be strongly in Phase 2.

 

 

Stock Market Update - Week Ending May 15, 2020

From a stage analysis perspective, the market continues to be in Stage 4.
The NASDAQ continues to be in a stage 1, but the other indexes are in stage 4.



The CDC map for the week

Stay at home orders map from Business Insider.

Stock Market Update: Week Ending April 24th

Markets rebounded a little this week. Of the 3 major indexes, the NASDAQ is the only one above, just slightly, the 30 week moving average line. States are looking to begin reopening. New York is hoping to reopen with precautions on May 15th. New York city has been especially hard hit by the pandemic, and is looking to reopen by June 1st.

This week's map from the CDC remains colorful.

How will the workforce look after the COVID virus? Will this finally be the death of the open office? Will telecommuting aka working-from-home become more acceptable? Lot's of speculation out there. Check out this Market Watch article. 

 

Stock Market Update - Week Ending March 27 2020 - COVID 19 update

Here in the US, this week has been bumpy. The government passed a 2$ Trillion dollar stimulus bill on Friday. The economy is taking a big hit with the lockdown of non-essential businesses in many states in an attempt to flatten the infection rate curve. The idea is to slow down the rate of infection to make sure hospitals don't get overwhelmed with cases all at once. Supplies and equipment needed, such as ventilators, must be available to help people with severe impact to their lungs.

The CDC infection rate map is below.

Hopefully, a vaccine will be found, or at least a better treatment for those who get infected.

Remember we are clearly in Stage 4.

Stage 1 - Basing Phase

30 week moving average loses its downward slope and starts to improve

Stage 2 - Advancing Phase

30 week moving average slopes up.

Close is above the 30 week moving average, with higher lows

Fundamentals improve

Stage 3 - The Top Phase

Loses momentum

Choppy market

30 week moving average loses upward slope and flattens

Stage 4 - Declining Phase

Close line below Moving average

30 week moving average is sloping down

Be safe.

Stock Market Update: Stage 4 and COVID-19

The market had a wild ride this week with the COVID-19 pandemic hitting the US more broadly. States are responding with heavy measures that impact people and businesses hard. We are officially in a Stage 4 market.

The CDC map of the COVID-19 status in the US show widespread movement of the virus.

Aside from the market reaction, COVID-19 is impacting people and will hopefully abate soon.

February 2020 Stock Market Update

The coronavirus COVID-19, is front and center this month as the stock market reacts to spread of the virus across the globe. Depending on what you read it's either time to panic or everyone is overreacting. The US is starting to see negative impacts and unfortunately some deaths. CNN update.

The CNN Fear and Greed indicator is at the lowest I can remember seeing it.



All of the Stage Analysis Indicators are now in the red. We most likely are entering into stage 4. StockCharts Graph Link.