COVID news of late has been more positive with hospitalization rates going down and the vaccine being administered. I have hopes of a recovery in late 2021  and into 2022.  The Atlantic has a great story about the importance of fresh air in treating airborne illnesses and how in the early part of COVID we forgot or discounted some of the measures learned during the 1918 pandemic.  See "We're Just Rediscovering a 19th Century Pandemic Strategy".

If you've ever worked in a modern office building you will appreciate the story. They are often stuffy with little air circulation and the windows don't open. I hate them. Add to that nobody can agree on the proper temperature. Often the ventilation systems are inadequate or under powered to save money.

The Market is still doing well from a stage analysis at this time. Gold appears to be entering in to stage 4.  My bets are on energy, travel stocks, and other areas that will benefit from some sort of 'back to normalcy'.

 

Bitcoin has been making news over the last couple of weeks. A large surge was seen after Elon Musk announced Tesla plans to accept bitcoin. Tesla bought $1.5 billion bitcoin.

 

Then there was the introduction of a new Bitcoin ETF, Purpose BTCC.

 This week also brought an unusual winter storm URI to Texas. Texas is now examining the problems that brought power issues, such as rolling blackouts and lack of water. 

 

It's time to look at energy by viewing the XLE chart. I think it is in Stage 1. The moving average line is starting to slope upward. I expect that when we recover from COVID, energy prices will rebound from the big plunge they took last year.

 

 

 For more reading on energy, I recommend these articles on Stockcharts:

• The Nightmare of Capital Efficiency
• Is Oil Just Getting Started
  

 

 

Stock Market Update: December 25, 2020

 The market continues to go full steam ahead. All indicators are green.

Cryptocurrencies are also doing well. Bitcoin stockcharts link.

Appears to be in stage 2 or stage 3.

 

COVID vaccines are being distributed worldwide and the hopes are that we can start to get back to normal in the spring.

 

Stock Market Update - Week Ending 12/11/20

 There has been some changes in the market as we get news that the FDA approved emergency use of the COVID-19 vaccine. "While not an FDA approval, today’s emergency use authorization of the Pfizer-BioNTech COVID-19 Vaccine holds the promise to alter the course of this pandemic in the United States,” said Peter Marks, M.D., Ph.D., Director of the FDA’s Center for Biologics Evaluation and Research.

With anticipation that the other vaccines will also get approved, and preparation for distribution of the Pfizer-BioNTech vaccine, there is some hope on the horizon. 

Now may be the time to trim gold if you have it. With the good news on COVID and the Gold ETF moving below it's 30 week moving average line, gold may be moving into Stage3. The moving average line itself is starting to flatten out. We will see.

 

 

 

Stock Market Update: Week of November 27, 2020

 It defies logic considering how bad the economy is, but the market is spiking up. CNN's Fear and Greed indicator is the highest I've seen. Extreme greed.

All of the indicators are currently green. COVID vaccine news continues as more options came out this week. Five are in Phase 3 trials.

As of November 24, 2020, large-scale (Phase 3) clinical trials are in progress or being planned for five COVID-19 vaccines in the United States:

• AstraZeneca’s COVID-19 vaccine
• Janssen’s COVID-19 vaccine
• Moderna’s COVID-19 vaccine
• Novavax’s COVID-19 vaccine
• Pfizer’s COVID-19 vaccine​

The market seems a little frosty to me. Gold broke below it's 30 week moving average. Tread lightly.

 

Stock Market Update: November 20, 2020

The markets are remaining positive and gold is showing signs of moving into stage 3. The moving average line is still on an uptrend however the weekly end is sloping down. This week brought news of multiple COVID-19 vaccines and some hope. Both
Pfizer/BioNTech and Moderna announced positive results.

Bitcoin is seeing new highs.

Stay frosty!

Stock Market Update: Week Ending November 6, 2020

 The stock market had a nice bounce this week while we wait for the results of the Presidential Election. It's pretty close. According to The Associated Press, as of this morning, it Biden has a small lead over Trump. If it plays out anything like the Bush vs. Gore election, we may have to wait until December to know who wins.

In 2000, the markets were already on a downturn prior to the election so I would be careful in making any predictions on the impact of this one on the market. Plus, we have the whole COVID pandemic to deal with and there is no comparison to that in 2000.

From a stage analysis, we are still in Stage 3.

Stock Market Update - October 23, 2020

Not much change in the stock market. It continues to hold steady. The Moving Average line on the global DOW is not slanting upward which is a positive sign.

With the election a couple of weeks away, Stock Chart's Three Takes on the Presidential Cycle article by David Keller is timely. Stan talks about presidential cycles in his book and I think Tom McClellan pretty much presents a similar viewpoint.

It's been awhile since we've looked at COVID-19. I am hoping the two charts below from the CDC provide some glimmer of hope. Cases are going up, but deaths are not.

 Total Cases

 

 

Total Deaths

 

Market Update: Oct 3, 2020

News that President Trump has contracted COVID-19 made headlines on Friday. He appears to be doing better as of this morning (WSJ).

It's possible the major indexes are in stage 3. Gold continues to be in Stage 2 but is showing signs of possibly moving into Stage 3 as well. Stimulus talks are in the works.

CNN's Fear & Greed went into greed last week. It's been in greed for awhile.

We will see.

 

 

 

Stock Market Update: September 25, 2020

There is a lot of uncertainty in the air. We have the upcoming election, talks of fast tracking a COVID-19 vaccine, and in general malaise and people are sick and tired of the lock down. 

The major indexes are above their 30 week moving averages however they are not looking to be in good shape as evidenced by the S&P chart below.

 

 

Gold appears to be consolidating. Its moving average line is still sloping up however which is a positive indicator.

I am in a wait and see mode at the moment and expect some turbulence with the election.

Stock Market Update: Week Ending August 14, 2020

 From a stage analysis view, markets are in mixed territory. I rate 4 of the indicators as neutral. The DOW, global DOW and S&P are above their 30 week moving average line, but the MA is sloping down or flat. Not exactly a sign of strength.

One of my favorite Stan Weinstein charts is the NYSE High Low Differential which looks at the difference between the number of stocks hitting their 52 week highs and 52 week lows.  Each week I look at the number of new 52 week highs and the number of new 52 week lows. For example, this week we had 44 stock reaching new highs and 7 stocks reaching new lows. Not much action at all. In a strong recovery the numbers are more like 389 to 30 respectively. So while this indicator is in the green, it's not by much and the highs versus lows is not that broad.

Here is my chart. I have found that this one chart can give a pretty decent indicator of the overall market, even though it's a very simple chart.

 

 

 

 

 

Also keep in mind we are heading into an election plus COVID is not over yet so the market can get pretty choppy yet.

Stock Market Update as of July 24, 2020 - COVID Continues, Gold Rises, Dollar Falls

I keep thinking gold has hit a top, it must be, but then as things continue on, it appears it may still be in stage 2. The dollar is falling, COVID flareups and the ramifications for people and businesses continues, however, the overall market indexes are all still above their 30 week moving averages. What is a cat to think?

I bought some of the Gold ETF in 2017 as a hedge. Didn't think too much of it and let it sit there as a rainy day investment. The question for me now is do I buy more or wait it out? In reviewing the chart, it looks like there is room for more advancement before GLD enters into stage 3. A stop loss is in order at $160. Note the resistance to move past is the $179 high in 2011. This week can be key to see if it can plow through that resistance line.

A ChartMill chart below, confirms gold is in stage 3. (ChartMill has Weinstein indicators).

 

And then Greg Schnell posted an article comparing copper and gold to the dollar.

Stock Market Update: July 11, 2020

The market continues to prove itself fairly resilient. Some say it is related to the fed policy. Technology has benefited from the work from home and stay at home mandates in reaction to the COVID pandemic. 

If the SDS ETF which is a hyper short vehicle is any indication, the markets are okay for now.  In the 2009 crisis, shorts were an indicator of how the market was doing. 

Here is a snapshot of how many COVID cases the US has as of this week.

and a comparison to the flu season:

We are living in interesting times indeed.

Stock Market Update: June 28, 2020

Market indicators are mixed. The recent upturn appears to be on shaky ground with Nassim Taleb calling for hedging a long tail. 

With that in mind, let's see where gold is from a stage perspective using the GLD ETF via stockcharts.

The moving average is sloping up, the close is above the 30 week moving average and fundamentals for gold are improving if you consider that it is widely viewed as a hedge for the market. The chart below shows the peak of gold during the 2009 market downturn was around $180. Current prices is $162. If we consider 180 to be the ceiling then we may have room for higher prices.

How about looking at the tech sector? The NasDaq continues to be in a stage 2 accumulation phase.

Overall, the market is choppy however, and that indicates we are still in phase 4 overall. The DOW and S&P are not in stage 2 but are still in stage 4.
 

Stock Market Update: Week Ending June 5, 2020

Big rebound in markets this week with an upbeat jobs report.

From a stage analysis perspective, we have the following:

• DOW & S&P : Stage 4. The 30 week moving average is still sloping down or is flat.
• NASDAQ: Stage 1: Closing price above the 30 week moving average and the moving average is sloping upward

 The CNN Fear and Greed index is showing a little bit of improvement the first time a long time.

Many areas in the US are re-opening in phases and fingers crossed, we can re-open without a resurgence in cases. We all need to get out of the house!!  
 

Stock Market Update: End of May 2020

Well we're at the end of May and it's been a ride! Markets rebounded and there is hope, at least here in New York, that we can start to re-open. NY has a 4 phase approach. Note, all have extensive rules, see the official page for more information.

• Phase 1: 
• Construction 
• Agriculture, Forestry, Fishing and Hunting 
• Retail - (Limited to curbside or in-store pickup or drop off)
• Manufacturing 
• Wholesale Trade 
• Phase 2:
• Offices 
• Real Estate
• Essential and Phase 2 in-store retail
• Vehicle sales, lease, rentals
• Retail rental, repair and cleaning
• Commercial building management
• Hair salons and barbershops (Yay)
• NOT OPEN:
  
  • Malls
  • Dine-in and on-premise restaurant or bar service, excluding take-out or delivery for off-premise consumption;
  • Large gathering/event venues
  • Gyms, fitness centers, and exercise classes,
  • Video lottery and casino gaming facilities;
  • Movie theaters, except drive-ins; and
  • Places of public amusement
• Phase 3:
• The guidelines below apply to non-essential businesses in regions that are permitted to reopen, essential businesses throughout the state that were previously permitted to remain open, and commercial and recreational activities that have been permitted to operate statewide with restrictions
• NOT OPEN: Restaurants and dine-in
• Phase 4:
  •  NOT OPEN:
    
    • Arts / Entertainment / Recreation
    • Education
     
  Holy Cow! Can it get any more confusing??

The stock market on the other hand is more direct. Markets appear to be making a recovery with the major indexes either above their 30 week moving average or about to break through and above it.

Stock Market Update: Week Ending May 22, 2020

Markets are mixed. There are signs of hope as states start to reopen. The Wall Street Journal has a nice map.

 

Many are limiting gatherings to 10 people or less. It would be nice to see a little more flexibility in some of the restrictions. If a wine store can be an 'essential' business and allow foot traffic, then you would think some additional retail stores could also be open with managed foot traffic. We want our small businesses to stay open and functioning, they are the backbone of our towns.

The race to develop a vaccine continues.

The NASDAG continues to be in a Stage 1 uptrend, while the S&P and DOW remain in Stage 4 decline. GLD appears to be strongly in Phase 2.

 

 

Stock Market Update - Week Ending May 15, 2020

From a stage analysis perspective, the market continues to be in Stage 4.
The NASDAQ continues to be in a stage 1, but the other indexes are in stage 4.



The CDC map for the week

Stay at home orders map from Business Insider.

Stock Market Update: End of April 2020

The market is on a wild ride, swinging from positivity to negativity with wide ranges. The DOW and S&P are in stage 4, the NASDAQ is in a possible stage 1.

COVID-19 continues to dominate the world. States in the US are beginning to plan re-opening business. Here is this week's COVID map. Note the new color purple used to designate cases above 28,764. 

Caution with stocks is recommended as we still in a stage 4 and the candlesticks in the charts above show wild swings in stock price movements. 

Stock Market Update: Week Ending April 24th

Markets rebounded a little this week. Of the 3 major indexes, the NASDAQ is the only one above, just slightly, the 30 week moving average line. States are looking to begin reopening. New York is hoping to reopen with precautions on May 15th. New York city has been especially hard hit by the pandemic, and is looking to reopen by June 1st.

This week's map from the CDC remains colorful.

How will the workforce look after the COVID virus? Will this finally be the death of the open office? Will telecommuting aka working-from-home become more acceptable? Lot's of speculation out there. Check out this Market Watch article.