The year has been quite the ride! The entire year down. Here are the numbers according to this Market Watch article by William Watts.
Pretty painful year.
I love this chart published by Jill Mislinski over at Advisor Perspectives.
Cheers!
Stocks are starting to look a little bit better with some of the indicators getting poised for positivity. We're not there yet but at least there is some improvement. It's been a about a year for this market's downturn.
Green represents a glimmer of hope but doesn't make the indicator positive until the moving average line slopes up.
Indicators:
The last couple of weeks are showing some signs of hope for stocks. October had a big gain. I am hopeful we are beginning to see a turn around and then even better if we start to climb the wall of worry.
CNN's Fear and Greed Indicator is at Greed
And finally, the Dow poked about its 30 week moving average line.
A cat can hope!
This week the market had a few days with big swings up and then back down again. A lot of action.
One comparison I like to do is to compare the short SPY ETF to the S&P index. As we can see below the last cross over occurred in September. The SDS is above the SPY signalling we have more short action than buying action. Not a good sign.
October can be a loss harvest month with the mutual funds and it's possible that is contributing to some of the downside. All indicators remain in the red.
After a little bit of optimism, we are back to a decline in the weekly numbers.
The Fed plans another rate hike to battle inflation with interest rates near 4% by year end.
We continue to be Stage 4 Decline.
Just when it looked as though the market was starting to look up, with the big indexes moving above their 30 week moving average, Fed Chair Powell let it rip that we are in for more pain. Yikes!
As Mary Ellen McGonagle put's it "Fed Chair Powell's comments today that bringing down prices "is likely to require a sustained period of below-trend growth and an increase in unemployment" brought the markets to its knees."
My favorite chart is offered up by Jill Mislinski at Advisor Perspectives in this article.
This week ended with a glimmer of hope as the market bounced up a little bit. From a stage analysis perspective, we are still in stage 4 because the major indexes are still below their 30 week moving average and all the other indicators are also in the red.
Notable news include:
If we have another couple of good weeks, we may see the major indexes above their moving average...
