Most of the Weinstein indicators are in or moving to Stage 1. This stage can be rough, but at the moment appear to be in a multi-week stage 1. Here is a look at the DOW. The S&P and NASDAQ look similar.
Corporate earning reports are underway.
Let's see what next week brings us.
The last couple of weeks are showing some signs of hope for stocks. October had a big gain. I am hopeful we are beginning to see a turn around and then even better if we start to climb the wall of worry.
CNN's Fear and Greed Indicator is at Greed
And finally, the Dow poked about its 30 week moving average line.
A cat can hope!
This week ended with a glimmer of hope as the market bounced up a little bit. From a stage analysis perspective, we are still in stage 4 because the major indexes are still below their 30 week moving average and all the other indicators are also in the red.
Notable news include:
If we have another couple of good weeks, we may see the major indexes above their moving average...
This week we had a little bounce. Interestingly though, there were still more new lows than new highs in the NYSE.
Let's compare the 2008-2009 downturn in the NasDaq to our current downturn.
Current downturn in NasDaq - about 7 months so far.
We are obviously still in Stage 4 - downturn! Let's see what develops over the next few months.
We are still in Stage 4 decline, however all 3 indexes did have a nice uptrend for the week.
One indicator to keep an eye on is the Dow vs Gold. They are about to cross. If they do indeed cross, then I view that as a sign of trouble. As of the end of this week, the bad trend reverted with gold dipping down. See this stockcharts link.
The government in contemplating an end to Daylight Savings - please let it be so!
The Sunshine Protection Act has passed the Senate and is awaiting House review.
Unfortunately the war in Ukraine continues.
Another bad week for stocks. One of the indicators I like to use is the Gold vs. Dow chart. At the moment, gold is approaching the Dow's moving average line.
2021 was a good year for the market! In general up 20%. Not bad. Who would have thought a pandemic would be good for the stock market?
Here's how the major indexes performed:
A few visuals to show the year.
S&P
NASDAQ
DOW
BitCoin to US Dollar
Stocks bounced back this week with the major indexes bouncing back above their 30 week moving averages. Last week I thought we might be heading into stage 3 but not so fast!
Even Indicator 5 - NYSE Advance-Decline 200 Day Moving Average bounced up.
CNN's Fear and Greed improved slightly this week as well.
Friday saw a sell off of about 2% to 2.5% amid concerns of a new COVID varient in South Africa.
Let's look at the indicators.
Interesting articles for further reading:
Markets have taken a bit of a bounce as we continue in Stage 3. The moving average line is sloping up.
It will be nice if things can get back to boring wouldn't it? This week we are seeing countries impose lock downs as COVID cases go up in Europe.
Stockcharts' Joe Duarte has an article on Fed rates and Covid and where are we in the market?
Are we possibly approaching stage 3 on the Weinstein scale? Or, are we continuing Stage 2 after getting a bounce? The GDOW and DOW both have flat moving averages, while the S&P and NASDAQ have bounced off their MA.
This past week was a downer, it just seemed the bad news wouldn't stop. Delta variants, Afghanistan pull out blunder, and tropical storm Henri! Maybe it's just me, but I am getting tired.
From a stage analysis point of view, things appear
to be okay. Some of the indexes are flirting with their 30 week moving
average lines, but are still above the line.
Interesting bitcoin news:
https://news.bitcoin.com/jpmorgan-wells-fargo-launching-bitcoin-funds-sec-filings/
From a stage analysis viewpoint, we are in Stage 2 Accumulation (see stage analysis overview here) with the market continuing to go up.
One of the gauges I like to look at is the Dow vs NYSE Advance-Decline. (Barron's used to produce it but stopped so I make my own chart.) It's a bad sign for the market when the Dow is advancing more than the NYSE, which we see in March of 2020 when COVID hit. Likewise, it's a positive sign when the NYSE is above the Dow. That's where we are now. It's one of the biggest divergences I've seen in a while.
Stories of interest:
Let's look at how the market is performing so far this year. It's been a good year so far.
If we look at the charts going back to September 2020, we can see visually how things are progressing.
The market continues to be in an uptrend. All indicators are green at this point.
CNN's Fear and Greed indicator is in the green.
COVID continues with the JNJ vaccine getting sidelined for a bit while a rare blood clot problem is looked into further. JNJ reports earnings soon.
By the way, have I mentioned how much I have come to hate the phrase "out of an abundance of caution"? It is seriously overused at this point.
As states open up restrictions, I expect a recovery to continue.
Gamestop mania looks like it has come to an end. It was an interesting ride!
Gold appears to be in stage 3 to me as its 30 week moving average is flattening and price is moving under the moving average.
Some interesting stocks to keep an eye on as they look like early stage 2:
Here is a quick breakdown of how 2020 fared for stocks.
Not a good year for the DOW in comparison to the other indexes. Great year otherwise.
The market continues to go full steam ahead. All indicators are green.
Cryptocurrencies are also doing well. Bitcoin stockcharts link.
Appears to be in stage 2 or stage 3.
COVID vaccines are being distributed worldwide and the hopes are that we can start to get back to normal in the spring.
It defies logic considering how bad the economy is, but the market is spiking up. CNN's Fear and Greed indicator is the highest I've seen. Extreme greed.
All of the indicators are currently green. COVID vaccine news continues as more options came out this week. Five are in Phase 3 trials.
As of November 24, 2020, large-scale (Phase 3) clinical trials are in progress or being planned for five COVID-19 vaccines in the United States:
The market seems a little frosty to me. Gold broke below it's 30 week moving average. Tread lightly.
This week saw a little pull back however from a long view of weekly and monthly charts, the major indexes are still above their 30 week moving averages. Gold continues to be above it's moving average as well, but could be entering into Stage 3.
The DOW shuffled the companies. Out are ExxonMobile, Raytheon and Pfiezer. In are Salesforce, Amgen and Honeywell. Also impacting the DOW is the Apple 4 for 1 stock split.
Holding steady for now.
