This week we had a little bounce. Interestingly though, there were still more new lows than new highs in the NYSE.
Let's compare the 2008-2009 downturn in the NasDaq to our current downturn.
Current downturn in NasDaq - about 7 months so far.
We are obviously still in Stage 4 - downturn! Let's see what develops over the next few months.
This week and the week prior, saw some stabilization on the downward trend we've been in since December 2021. All my indicators remain in the red however. We don't know if this is just a pause and we don't know which direction we will go from here. We are still in Stage 4 decline.
Looking at market sectors, the only well performing sectors for the last month are Energy, Utilities and Materials. Especially interesting is XLE which lagged the market recovery from COVID up until recently as it now outperforms the others. See this Stockcharts graph.
Even with the little uptick on Friday, the overall week is down and we continue to be in Stage 4 Downturn. All indicators remain in the negative.
Inflation remains high, inventory of goods remains slow and sluggish, the Russian/Ukrainian war continues, COVID is still an issue, and CNN's Fear and Greed is at Extreme Fear.
The markets continue to be in Stage 4 Decline. The sell-off while prolonged is not as deep as the last one that occurred in 2020. Tech is hardest hit this time around.
My friend Jimmy had recommended iBonds to me a few months ago. They are a great way to earn a high interest rate with some caveats. Including them in your portfolio helps balance out market downturns. With inflation going up they are about to increase to near 9% return.
To learn more read these articles:
This week saw a little bounce, but the major indexes have not broken above their 30 week moving average lines.
Wishing Wealth feels this could be a bad sign. Too many breakouts not making it.
Jill Mislinski at Advisors Perspectives is showing mixed signals with the S&P analysis signaling to be in cash, however, the longer view of the Ivy Portfolios are a mix of cash and invested.
CNN's Fear and Greed has moved up a bit. It had been in the dumps for weeks.
We are still in Stage 4 decline, however all 3 indexes did have a nice uptrend for the week.
One indicator to keep an eye on is the Dow vs Gold. They are about to cross. If they do indeed cross, then I view that as a sign of trouble. As of the end of this week, the bad trend reverted with gold dipping down. See this stockcharts link.
The government in contemplating an end to Daylight Savings - please let it be so!
The Sunshine Protection Act has passed the Senate and is awaiting House review.
Unfortunately the war in Ukraine continues.
No doubt about it, we are in Stage 4 downtrend. All of my indicators are in the red. The last one to go red is the global DOW which is now below its 30 week moving average.
Another indicator to watch is the 10 week moving average vs the 30 week moving average. The cross has occurred with the NASDAQ taking the most heat.
The Russian invasion of Ukraine is sadly a driver, along with inflation (gas prices anyone?), and supply chain issues. For once, COVID is not behind the bad news as most states lift their mask mandates and hopefully we return back to normal.
CNN's Fear and Greed indicator is at the lowest I've seen in a long time.
