This week saw a little bounce, but the major indexes have not broken above their 30 week moving average lines.
Wishing Wealth feels this could be a bad sign. Too many breakouts not making it.
Jill Mislinski at Advisors Perspectives is showing mixed signals with the S&P analysis signaling to be in cash, however, the longer view of the Ivy Portfolios are a mix of cash and invested.
CNN's Fear and Greed has moved up a bit. It had been in the dumps for weeks.
We are still in Stage 4 decline, however all 3 indexes did have a nice uptrend for the week.
One indicator to keep an eye on is the Dow vs Gold. They are about to cross. If they do indeed cross, then I view that as a sign of trouble. As of the end of this week, the bad trend reverted with gold dipping down. See this stockcharts link.
The government in contemplating an end to Daylight Savings - please let it be so!
The Sunshine Protection Act has passed the Senate and is awaiting House review.
Unfortunately the war in Ukraine continues.
No doubt about it, we are in Stage 4 downtrend. All of my indicators are in the red. The last one to go red is the global DOW which is now below its 30 week moving average.
Another indicator to watch is the 10 week moving average vs the 30 week moving average. The cross has occurred with the NASDAQ taking the most heat.
The Russian invasion of Ukraine is sadly a driver, along with inflation (gas prices anyone?), and supply chain issues. For once, COVID is not behind the bad news as most states lift their mask mandates and hopefully we return back to normal.
CNN's Fear and Greed indicator is at the lowest I've seen in a long time.
Another bad week for stocks. One of the indicators I like to use is the Gold vs. Dow chart. At the moment, gold is approaching the Dow's moving average line.
Looking at the Stan Weinstein indicators, we are in a Bear Market. All indicators except for the Global Dow are negative.
COVID cases are down and hopefully life returns to normal in 2022. So what is the problem? Inflation, Ukraine/Russia tension according to this Wall Street Journal article.
Tech, led by Facebook is taken a beating. FANG stocks are not looking too good. Apple is doing fine but the others are not. The Apple vs Facebook battle over our data is an interesting one.
Let's look at the charts. At this point, just a minor correction. We will have to wait and see if it stays minor or gets larger.
We are in a bit of a correction. The NasDaq is now in Stage 4 decline because its 30 week moving average line is now sloping downward.
One of my favorite Stan Weinstein indicators is to chart the difference between NYSE stocks hitting their 52 week high vs those hitting their 52 week low. He said not to use it alone but in conjunction with the other indicators. If we take a look at it now, it shows that we are in the beginning of a correction. How far it goes is hard to say, this could be a normal correction or if tensions continue with Russia, inflation doesn't budge and if there are more restrictions due to COVID which is also driving inflation, then it could continue. Hard to say.
From my perspective, we are now entering into Stage 3 for the major indexes, all of which are now below their 30 week moving averages. At this point, the moving average line is slightly up or flat, it is not going down into Stage 4. Interestingly, the global Dow is above. Generally it lags the US markets but not this time.
Tech took the biggest hit this week.
