All indicators turned green this week and it is possible we've moved out of the correction of the last couple of week's. CNN's Fear and Greed is neutral.
In the new's.
- It's about time! Food manufacturer's vow to take out trans fat.
The major indexes are hovering either just above, or just below, their 30 week moving averages. Inflation is rising a bit, and so are gas prices. BitCoin made a minor comeback last week too.
The Stage Analysis signals are mixed. All major indexes are below their 30 week moving averages, but just barely. Trade wars are spurring instability in the markets.
Bitcoin takes a bashing as more governments are looking to ban it's use.
We had a little improvement last week, however I still remain cautious. The S&P and Dow and below their 30 week moving average.
Trade wars are in the news and China announced tariffs on imports.
BitCoin has been falling pretty hard, along with other crypto curriences in the last few weeks.
This past week saw a break of the 30 week moving average for the DOW, S&P, and Global Dow. The NASAQ did not, but is close. The NYSE Hi/Low and other indicators are moving to the red. This most likely is a stage 3 entry.
Fear and Greed is extreme fearful.
Most accounts of the cause for the decline are pointing their fingers at the trade wars started by tariffs implemented by the Trump Administration.
According to the Weinstein stage analysis, we didn't make it into stage 4 with the market correction. We might be entering into Stage 3.
For a recap:
Stage Analysis:
- Stage 1 - Basing Phase
- 30 week moving average loses its downward slope and starts to improve
- Stage 2 - Advancing Phase
- 30 week moving average slopes up.
- Close is above the 30 week moving average, with higher lows
- Fundamentals improve
- Stage 3 - The Top Phase
- Loses momentum
- Choppy market
- 30 week moving average loses upward slope and flattens
- Stage 4 - Declining Phase
- Close line below Moving average
- 30 week moving average is sloping down
McClellon has a good article this week. Stock Market in a Rogue Wave.
Let's see how it goes this week.
The markets are in a bit of a correction. My indicators are not fully in the red at this point, so it is a minor correction for now.
Trump announced tariffs last week and we are on schedule for rate hikes this year.
If the major indexes break through their 30 week moving averages, then I will call a full blown correction. We'll see what this week brings us.