Weekly Stock Market Update: Mixed

We had a little improvement last week, however I still remain cautious. The S&P and Dow and below their 30 week moving average. 

Trade wars are in the news and China announced tariffs on imports.

BitCoin has been falling pretty hard, along with other crypto curriences in the last few weeks.

Weekly Stock Market Update: Stage 3?

This past week saw a break of the 30 week moving average for the DOW, S&P, and Global Dow. The NASAQ did not, but is close. The NYSE Hi/Low and other indicators are moving to the red. This most likely is a stage 3 entry.

Fear and Greed is extreme fearful.

Most accounts of the cause for the decline are pointing their fingers at the trade wars started by tariffs implemented by the Trump Administration.

Weekly Stock Market Update: Not in Bear Territory Yet!

According to the Weinstein stage analysis, we didn't make it into stage 4 with the market correction. We might be entering into Stage 3.

For a recap:
Stage Analysis:

• Stage 1 - Basing Phase
•  30 week moving average loses its downward slope and starts to improve
• Stage 2 - Advancing Phase
• 30 week moving average slopes up. 
• Close is above the 30 week moving average, with higher lows
•  Fundamentals improve
• Stage 3 - The Top Phase
• Loses momentum
• Choppy market
• 30 week moving average loses upward slope and flattens
• Stage 4 - Declining Phase
•  Close line below Moving average
• 30 week moving average is sloping down

McClellon has a good article this week. Stock Market in a Rogue Wave.

Let's see how it goes this week.
 
  

Weekly Market Update: Some Turbulance

The markets are in a bit of a correction. My indicators are not fully in the red at this point, so it is a minor correction for now.

Trump announced tariffs last week and we are on schedule for rate hikes this year.  

If the major indexes break through their 30 week moving averages, then I will call a full blown correction. We'll see what this week brings us.

 

Weekly Market Update: Recovery

While the 10% pull back was not as large as the 20% pullback in 1987, it was still exciting for a market that just doesn't want to stay down for the count. Jesse Felder has a blog post referring to an interesting read last October by Robert Shiller outlining how a drop in the market can still happen along with the psychology behind it. See the New York Times article.

The CNN Fear & Greed Index is logging Extreme Fear. A reading we haven't seen in months.

And finally, one of my favorite blogs, Decision Point, has an in-depth review of the market titled, Bear Market Rally Over?

At this point the Stan Weinstein indicators are all back in the green (minus the dividend to Dow). The major indexes came close to their weekly moving averages but didn't actually touch them.

Stock Market Update: Finally, a Pull Back!

I don't know about you, but I've been waiting for some sort of pull back for months. The market has been too steady on it's upward climb. This week we had the strongest pull back in months! All the major indexes came close to touching their 30 week moving average line last week. See the chart below.

Are we in a bear market? Too soon to tell (and not yet signaled in my indicators), but here are some interesting articles:

• DP Weekly Wrap over at Stockcharts.com
• Don't Panic It's Just A Correction over at Investors.com 
• Stock are expected to rise today - Barchart.com

Stock Market Update: A Little Pull Back

Last week saw the first pull back in months. A much needed pull back if you ask me.  The moving averages are still above their 30 week line, but we did see a decline. The NYSE and Dow were both down for the week. See this CNN post for speculation on why markets are down for the week.

Bitcoin is also falling, rather sharply. Tim Ferriss has a really good cryptocurrency show if you want a little background. The interview with Nick Szabo is pretty interesting.